Publications de Lorenzo Mari | EPFL Graph Search

Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics. The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection spread is described by an epidemicity index related to th ...

2024

Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto

Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections amon ...

2023

Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Mario Zanon, Marino Gatto

While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or ri ...

2022

Epidemicity of cholera spread and the fate of infection control measures

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto

The fate of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks is predicted through reproduction numbers, defining the long-term establishment of the infection, and epidemicity indices, tackling the reactivity of the infectious pool to new contagions. Prognostic metrics ...

2022

Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Luca Carraro, Marino Gatto

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explici ...

National Academy of Sciences2020

The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto

The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly atten ...

Nature Research2020

Conditions for transient epidemics of waterborne disease in spatially explicit systems

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

Waterborne diseases are a diverse family of infections transmitted through ingestion of-or contact with-water infested with pathogens. Outbreaks of waterborne infections often show well-defined spatial signatures that are typically linked to local eco-epid ...

2019

Modelled effects of prawn aquaculture on poverty alleviation and schistosomiasis control

Andrea Rinaldo, Lorenzo Mari, Francisco Javier Perez Saez, Marino Gatto

Recent evidence suggests that snail predators may aid efforts to control the human parasitic disease schistosomiasis by eating aquatic snail species that serve as intermediate hosts of the parasite. Here, potential synergies between schistosomiasis control ...

NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP2019

Integration of satellite remote sensing data in ecosystem modelling at local scales: Practices and trends

Andrea Rinaldo, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto

2018

Epidemicity thresholds for water-borne and water-related diseases

Andrea Rinaldo, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

2018