Christian Pröbsting | EPFL Graph Search

À propos de ce résultat

Cette page est générée automatiquement et peut contenir des informations qui ne sont pas correctes, complètes, à jour ou pertinentes par rapport à votre recherche. Il en va de même pour toutes les autres pages de ce site. Veillez à vérifier les informations auprès des sources officielles de l'EPFL.

Fiscal Policy, Relative Prices and Net Exports in a Currency Union

Christian Pröbsting

This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on net exports, the terms of trade and expenditure switching. Using data on government spending and consumption taxes for twelve euro area countries over 1996 to 2018, it shows that fiscal austerity shocks improve net exports. This improvement in the trade balance is driven by falling imports while exports do not respond; export and import prices co-move and the terms of trade does not deteriorate in response to an austere shock. The empirical evidence confirms asymmetric expenditure switching, as domestic consumers switch towards domestically produced goods while foreign consumers fail to do so. In a second step, we rationalize these findings in a multi-product small-open DSGE model that features GHH preferences, a non-traded consumption good and pricing to market.

2020

Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Christian Pröbsting

We exploit differences across U.S. states' exposure to trade to study the effects of changes in the exchange rate on economic activity. Across states, trade-weighted exchange rate depreciations are associated with increased state exports, reduced state unemployment, and higher state hours worked. The effects are particularly strong during periods of economic slack. A multiregion model with interstate trade and labor flows, calibrated to match state-level trade data and migration flows, replicates the empirical relationship between exchange rates and unemployment. The high degree of interstate trade plays an important role in transmitting shocks across states in the first year, whereas interstate migration shapes cross-sectional patterns in later years. We use the model to study the regional effects of tariffs in the United States. The model suggests that a 25% Chinese import tariff on U.S. goods would be felt throughout the United States, even in states with small direct linkages to China, raising unemployment rates by 0.2 to 0.7 percentage points in the short run.

2020

AUSTERITY IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE GREAT RECESSION

Christian Pröbsting

We examine austerity in advanced economies since the Great Recession. Austerity shocks are reductions in government purchases that exceed reduced-form forecasts. Austerity shocks are statistically associated with lower real GDP, lower inflation and higher net exports. We estimate a cross-sectional multiplier of roughly 2. A multi-country DSGE model calibrated to 29 advanced economies generates a multiplier consistent with the data. Counterfactuals suggest that eliminating austerity would have substantially reduced output losses in Europe. Austerity shocks were sufficiently contractionary that debt-to-GDP ratios in some European countries increased as a consequence of endogenous reductions in GDP and tax revenue

NBER2017