Publications de Cristiano Trevisin

Epidemicity conditions in spatial models of infectious diseases

We review the work that has been conducted in the past years to understand when and why significant epidemics may arise even though a disease is not bound to become endemic in the long run i.e. subthreshold outbreaks. In particular, we describe the methods ...

2025

Sufficient reproduction numbers to prevent recurrent epidemics

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin

Current practice in the design and evaluation of control measures in disease ecology and epidemiology, including vaccination, is largely based on reproduction numbers (RNs), which represent prognostic indices of long‐term disease transmission, both in naïv ...

Wiley2025

Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin

Epidemiological indicators (e.g. reproduction numbers and epidemicity indices) describe long- and short-term behaviour of ongoing epidemics. Their evolving values provide context for designing control measures because maintaining both indices below suitabl ...

2025

A Spatially Explicit Model of the Dynamics of Opisthorchis viverrini Spread

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin

Opisthorchis viverrini is a water-based disease-causing parasite whose public health implications are relevant in Southeast Asia. Untreated or chronic infections often lead to severe hepatobiliary morbidity including cholangiocarcinoma, a lethal bile duct ...

2024

Infectious disease spread in connected communities

Cristiano Trevisin

Ecohydrology and epidemiology share a deep bond in infectious disease modelling. The former focuses on the interaction among species and their water-controlled environment (i.e., the study of water controls on the biota). The latter revolves around specif ...

EPFL2024

Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics. The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection spread is described by an epidemicity index related to th ...

2024

Spatially explicit effective reproduction numbers from incidence and mobility data

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto

Current methods for near real-time estimation of effective reproduction numbers from surveillance data overlook mobility fluxes of infectors and susceptible individuals within a spatially connected network (the metapopulation). Exchanges of infections amon ...

2023

Epidemicity of cholera spread and the fate of infection control measures

Andrea Rinaldo, Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Damiano Pasetto, Marino Gatto

The fate of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks is predicted through reproduction numbers, defining the long-term establishment of the infection, and epidemicity indices, tackling the reactivity of the infectious pool to new contagions. Prognostic metrics ...

2022