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Most current risk assessment for complex extreme events relies on catalogues of similar events, either historical or generated artificially. In the latter, no existing methods produce completely new events with mathematically justified extrapolation above ...
In causal inference the effect of confounding may be controlled using regression adjustment in an outcome model, propensity score adjustment, inverse probability of treatment weighting or a combination of these. Approaches based on modelling the treatment ...
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a widely deployed method to sample from high-dimensional distributions in Statistics and Machine learning. HMC is known to run very efficiently in practice and its popular second-order "leapfrog" implementation has long bee ...
How many samples are sufficient to guarantee that the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix are close to those of the actual covariance matrix? For a wide family of distributions, including distributions with finite second moment and ...
Frequentist and Bayesian approaches to statistics have long been seen as incompatible, but recent work has been done to try and unify them (Bayarri and Berger, 2004; Efron, 2005). Empirical Bayes, approximate Bayesian analysis, and the matching prior appro ...
We consider the problem of measuring how much a system reveals about its secret inputs. We work in the black-box setting: we assume no prior knowledge of the system's internals, and we run the system for choices of secrets and measure its leakage from the ...
In this work, we formulate the fixed-length distribution matching as a Bayesian inference problem. Our proposed solution is inspired from the compressed sensing paradigm and the sparse superposition (SS) codes. First, we introduce sparsity in the binary so ...
The goal of scenario reduction is to approximate a given discrete distribution with another discrete distribution that has fewer atoms. We distinguish continuous scenario reduction, where the new atoms may be chosen freely, and discrete scenario reduction, ...
The currently adopted practice for uncertainty quantification of thermal-hydraulics code predictions is done through statistical sampling where the code is evaluated multiple times using different values of input parameters that are randomly generated acco ...
There have been many studies on the spatial configuration of cities, but few attempts to quantify the difference in building patterns between the old and new parts of cities. This may be partly attributable to lack of suitable study methods. This paper pre ...
