Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks

The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites), to infer long-term records of past land-cover from pollen data, (3) to present a new project (LANDCLIM: LAND cover - CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) currently underway, and show preliminary results of REVEALS reconstructions of the regional land-cover in the Czech Republic for five selected time windows of the Holocene, and (4) to discuss the implications and future directions in climate and vegetation/land-cover modeling, and in the assessment of the effects of human-induced changes in land-cover on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. The existing ALCC scenarios show large discrepancies between them, and few cover time periods older than AD 800. When these scenarios are used to assess the impact of human land-use on climate, contrasting results are obtained. It emphasizes the need for methods such as the REVEALS model-based land-cover reconstructions. They might help to fine-tune descriptions of past land-cover and lead to a better understanding of how long-term changes in ALCC might have influenced climate. The REVEALS model is demonstrated to provide better estimates of the regional vegetation/land-cover changes than the traditional use of pollen percentages. This will achieve a robust assessment of land cover at regional- to continental-spatial scale throughout the Holocene. We present maps of REVEALS estimates for the percentage cover of 10 plant functional types (PFTs) at 200 BP and 6000 BP, and of the two open-land PFTs 'grassland' and 'agricultural land' at five time-windows from 6000 BP to recent time. The LANDCLIM results are expected to provide crucial data to reassess ALCC estimates for a better understanding of the land suface-atmosphere interactions.

The mid-Holocene vegetation of the Mediterranean region and southern Europe, and comparison with the present day

Pamela Collins, Basil Andrew Stansfield Davis, Jed Oliver Kaplan

Aim To contribute to the intense debate surrounding the relative influence of climate and humans on Mediterranean-region land cover over the past 6000 years, we assess the Holocene biogeography and vegetation history of southern Europe by means of an extensive pollen record dataset. Location The Mediterranean biogeographical zone and neighbouring parts of Iberia, the Alps and Anatolia, between 30 degrees N, 48 degrees N, 10 degrees W and 45 degrees E. Methods We compiled a southern European pollen record dataset using available pollen databases (124 sites) and other sources (74 sites), with improved spatial coverage and dating control compared with earlier studies. We used only those sites that had pollen data for both 0 ka and 6 ka. We reconstructed mid-Holocene and present-day biomes, arboreal pollen percentages and distribution and relative abundance of 11 key woody taxa, with anomaly maps. Results Northern temperate forest biomes extended further south at the mid-Holocene than at present, but not as far as earlier studies suggested. Sclerophyllous vegetation occurred along the Mediterranean coast throughout the region at 6 ka. Arboreal pollen percentages were up to 50% higher than at present. At 6 ka, Olea, Fagus and Juniperus had smaller distributions and/or abundances; Abies, Cedrus and both deciduous and evergreen Quercus had larger distributions and/or abundances; Phillyrea, Pistacia and Cistus showed minimal difference; and Pinus showed a cosmopolitan distribution with variable abundance. Main conclusions Temporal difference analysis is more meaningful when only sites containing samples for all time slices are analysed. During the mid-Holocene, southern Europe was more heavily forested with temperate vegetation than it is at present, but drought-tolerant xeric vegetation was still widespread along the southern margins of the region. Although human land use may have caused the degradation of land between the mid-Holocene and the present, the mere presence of xeric vegetation in the Mediterranean region does not require human impact. This challenges the commonly held belief that modern Mediterranean vegetation represents a degraded state.

Wiley-Blackwell2012

Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe

Jed Oliver Kaplan

Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming practices and forestry in response to population growth and industrialization. This is a unique signature of anthropogenic impact within the Holocene but European vegetation remains climatically sensitive and thus may continue to respond to ongoing climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd2017

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

Jed Oliver Kaplan

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55degreesN, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

2003

The mid-Holocene vegetation of the Mediterranean region and southern Europe, and comparison with the present day

Pamela Collins, Basil Andrew Stansfield Davis, Jed Oliver Kaplan

Wiley-Blackwell2012

Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe

Jed Oliver Kaplan

Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd2017