Statistical Analysis of Mountain Permafrost Temperatures

The consequences of climate change are clearly visible in the Swiss Alps. In the past decades, increasing air temperatures have induced pronounced glacier retreat and permafrost thawing. Thawing permafrost in steep terrain is a potential natural hazard, as it can become unstable and trigger mass movements such as settlement, debris flows or rock fall. The WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF has been measuring ground temperatures and displacements in permafrost boreholes for more than a decade. This thesis aimed to analyse these ground temperatures with statistical methods, assessing possible changes, trends and physical coherencies. In a first step, temporal changes in daily ground temperatures measured in two adjacent boreholes at Muot da Barba Peider in the Eastern Swiss Alps were analysed. Statistical models, which could for example describe changes in the amplitudes or in the mean, were used to estimate possible trends. The results for the period 1996 - 2008 revealed increasing summer temperature for the upper ground layers, whereas winter temperatures had decreased. For the frozen rock below 10 m however, a general temperature increase was found. Although increasing summer temperatures were consistent with the development of the air temperatures, decreasing winter temperatures could be attributed to a thin early winter snow depth. The general warming trend in the deeper layers was assigned to increased heat transfer through the mountain ridge of Muot da Barba Peider induced by warming air temperatures and lower snow depths. These results confirm that permafrost temperatures in the Alps are influenced by factors such as snow cover, surface properties, hydrology and topography. Increasing air temperatures do not necessarily induce permafrost thawing. Special attention was paid to the so-called "active layer", the topmost ground layer above permafrost, which seasonally thaws in summer. An increase in its thickness implies a potential increase of the material which might be released in a mass movement. Typical active layer characteristics have been analysed and compared for ten different permafrost sites. Whereas over the past decade, the active layer remained rather constant at the individual sites, significant differences due to local terrain properties were visible. The comparison of the daily development of the active layer thickness with that of the thawing degree days revealed that ice-rich ground layers delay the active layer development efficiently and thus isolate the permafrost from warm air temperatures. Two of the ten sites, however, revealed abrupt active layer deepening due to lateral air and/or water flows. Further investigation of the dependence between air and ground temperature was performed. Transfer function models were used to quantify the relation between air and ground temperatures measured at 0.5 m depth at seven different permafrost sites. The results showed that the delay between daily changes in the air and ground temperature ranges from one to six days, depending on the site. The most efficient relation was found for a very coarse-blocky rock glacier site, whereas scree slopes with smaller grain sizes showed a weaker and more prolonged relation. The main heat transfer mechanism in permafrost is conduction, but due to phase change, air or water flows, heat can also be transferred non-conductively. A statistical procedure including spectral analysis, order-restricted inference and a false discovery rate procedure has been developed to detect depths and frequencies at which significant non-conductive heat transfer processes occur. The application of the procedure to two-hourly borehole temperatures measured at Muot da Barba Peider revealed significant non-conductive heat transfer for the period 2005 - 2009 only in an ice-rich layer between 1 and 1.9 m depth. To gain deeper insight into the processes occurring shorter (three-week) periods have been analysed. The results showed non-conductive heat transfer processes that could be attributed to phase changes at the freezing front and at the base of the active layer in autumn, to convective air and vapour flows through the frozen scree in winter, and to phase changes and meltwater infiltration during the thawing period in spring. Analyses of borehole temperatures also revealed special phenomena. A case study for the famous permafrost site at Flüela Pass showed that the permafrost body inside the scree slope, close to the lake has degraded from 7 m to 3.5 m thickness within four years. This rapid permafrost degradation could be attributed to a seasonal ventilation system inside the scree, leading to condensation which melts the permafrost body from below. Increasing lake water temperatures might accelerate the phenomenon. The ground temperatures analysed in this work include about one decade of measurements and therefore are too short for climate-related statements. However, the statistical analyses performed give an interesting insight into the development of permafrost ground temperatures during the past ten years and their interaction with air temperature and local properties. The presented results furthermore emphasize the strong spatial variability of the ground thermal regime in mountain permafrost.

Evolution of stream and lake water temperature under climate change

Damien Bouffard, Wolf Hendrik Huwald, Adrien Michel, Carl Love Mikael Råman Vinnå, Bettina Schaefli, Martin Schmid, Alfred Johny Wüest

This report presents past observations and projects the future development of water temperature in Swiss lakes and rivers. Projections are made until the end of the 21st century using the CH2018 climate scenarios. Besides climate change effects on temperature, we also discuss effects on discharge for rivers, and effects on the thermal structure, and specifically the seasonal mixing regime and ice cover of lakes. Observations over the past 40 years show a clear increase in river temperatures, with a mean trend of 0.33 ± 0.03 °C per decade, corresponding to ~80% of the observed air temperature trend. This warming has been continuous over the last four decades and impacts the health of stream ecosystems (e.g. by favouring the spread of fish diseases) and their services (e.g., the water usage for industrial cooling). The temperature rise is more pronounced in the Swiss Plateau than in the Alps, where snow and glacier melt partially mitigates (for now) the effects of increasing air temperature. Conversely, annual average discharge shows no significant trend. Similar trends have also been reported for Swiss lakes with mean summer lake surface temperature increasing by 0.40 ± 0.08 °C per decade since the 1950s. This warming trend affects lake stratification. Warm periods may for instance increase the occurrence of deep-water anoxic conditions, as observed during the 2003 heat wave in Lake Zurich. In mild winters, ice cover duration is reduced in alpine lakes, and winter deep mixing is less intense in large-peri-alpine lakes. The mild winter 2006/7 limited, for instance, the seasonal mixing of Lake Constance to about 60 m depths. Effects of warming on lake thermal structure vary within and between regions, due to both lake and watershed characteristics as well as regional climate change patterns. We simulated the future evolution of stream temperature for 10 catchments in Switzerland for a historical reference period (1990–2000) and two future periods: 2055–2065 (mid-century) and 2080–2090 (end of the century). Results show that the temperature will stabilize by the end of the century for the RCP2.6 scenario (strong CO2 emission reduction), whereas the warming will accelerate with time for the RCP8.5 scenario (business as usual scenario). This expected warming will have significant impacts on the stream ecosystems. Alpine and lowland catchments will experience a similar annual mean temperature increase but display different seasonal effects. While Swiss Plateau rivers will become warmer both in winter and summer (but more in summer), alpine rivers will experience almost no warming in winter but a strong warming exceeding that of air temperature in summer. This is explained by an abrupt decrease in discharge, and by the soil warming resulting from the absence of snow and thus a lower albedo. Lake temperature projections are based on one-dimensional, vertically resolved, hydrodynamic simulations for 29 lakes. The simulated lakes cover a wide range of sizes, depths and water quality, and an altitude range from 200 to 1800 m a.s.l. Simulations indicate substantial changes in lake thermal structure for RCP8.5 with surface temperatures increasing on average by 3.3 °C at the end of the 21st century. This increase is limited to 0.9 °C in the mitigation scenario RCP2.6. We identified an altitude-dependent evolution of the durations of summer and winter stratification as well the ice-covered period. Larger changes in stratification duration are expected to occur at higher altitude lakes. Yet, these lakes will still maintain winter stratification and a shortened icecovered period while lower altitude lakes (below ~1500 m a.s.l.) risk drastic changes in the mixing regime. e.g., a complete loss of the ice cover and winter stratification under the RCP8.5 scenarios. Such changes in the mixing regime may strongly impact lake ecosystems. These low to mid altitude lakes may therefore be considered as the most vulnerable to climate change.

2021

The effect of seasonal soil frost on the alpine groundwater recharge including climate change aspects

Daniel Bayard

In alpine areas, the snow cover plays an important role as a water reservoir. Water is stored as snow over the winter and released in spring, recharging mountain aquifers through infiltration. These aquifers are essential, especially for supplying water for human activities during dry seasons. Numerous studies have shown that locally soil frost can drastically reduce the water infiltration. However, we know much less about the hydrological impact of soil frost at a larger scale, in particular with regard to groundwater recharge. This was our motivation for initiating an extensive field experiment in the southern Swiss Alps. Several methods at different spatial scales were adapted to explore (a) the local effect of a partially frozen ground on the snowmelt discharge in an alpine area, (b) the key processes influencing groundwater recharge during snowmelt periods, such as snow cover and soil frost evolution, snowmelt water runoff types, (c) the large-scale effect of soil frost on the aquifer recharge, and (d) winter situations that are critical with respect to flooding. In order to take into account spatial, altitudinal and climatic differences, the field study was run for two winter seasons at Gd St Bernard (2500 m), a site with very high winter precipitation and strong winds, and at Hannigalp above Grächen (2100 m), a ski resort with a rather dry winter climate. The different components of the soil water balance (lateral runoff, deep percolation, liquid soil water content) were measured on delimited plots of 5 m2. Additionally, a dye tracer experiment visualized the snowmelt infiltration patterns into the frozen, respectively non-frozen ground. At Gd St Bernard, investigations of the liquid water content and the soil temperature were additionally conducted at two secondary sites, differing in their orientation, so as to gain a better insight of the spatial soil frost expansion. Finally, an analysis of the water-table variation at the village of Grächen (some 500 m below Hannigalp) during the snowmelt was carried out for a 10-year time period, including our experimental seasons. We complemented our field investigations by using a numerical soil-snow-atmosphere transfer model that simulates the seasonal development of the soil frost and the snow cover, as well as lateral and vertical water flow in the top soil. This model was used as an upper boundary condition to a 2-D groundwater model, to calculate the outlet flow at the base of a simplified alpine aquifer. The two winters investigated had contrasting meteorological conditions, which resulted in intriguing differences and similarities with respect to the soil physical conditions: the first one having a thick snowpack and hardly any soil frost, and the second one with hardly any snow until January and a deep and persistent soil frost. In spite of a very thick snowpack, the water balance measurements from winter 2000/2001 showed for both sites zero to low surface and subsurface flow due to the fact that soil frost was local and the soil permeability high. During the next winter, approximately 25% of the total meltwater run off laterally. The soil infiltration capacity was mainly reduced by the presence of a basal ice sheet, caused by the freezing of meltwater after a mid-winter snowmelt event. The field data were used to calibrate and validate a physically-based one-dimensional model. To allow an accurate parameter setting for the water repellent soil of Hannigalp, laboratory infiltration experiments on soil columns were additionally carried out. Using the resultant information, the model predicted correctly most measured soil parameters, in particular good matching was observed between measured and simulated snowmelt discharge. At Gd St Bernard, the simulated results were less satisfactory, especially during the first winter, when large discrepancies were noted between measured and simulated lateral runoff. Apart from the shortage in the soil parameter characterization, the deviation was a result of the simplified description of the experimental field. The model was, for example, not able to simulate surface runoff generated by a steep slope under unfrozen conditions, as the soil surface is considered by the model to be flat. Nevertheless, results were accurate enough to reproduce the occurrences of snowmelt events and the accumulated values of snow-melt discharge pathways under frozen conditions. Long-term weather data were used to simulate the soil frost depth at both sites. The simulation results showed that the probability of the occurrence of frozen soils was lowest on slopes with south or north exposure. On southerly exposed plots, the heat stored in the soil during the summer inhibited the development of deep and persistent soil frost, while most pore ice thawed due to underneath heating. On north plots, the building of soil frost was rare, as early snowfall insulated the ground from the atmosphere. However, during snow-poor winters, the frost penetrated deep into the ground, and the low underneath heat flux at that location hardly affected the frost depth until snowmelt. The snow depth and average soil temperature were hence the two components affecting the frost depth extent. The altitude soil frost variation was related to the spatial extent of these two components. The higher the altitude, the higher the precipitation and the lower the mean air/surface temperature. Simulating the whole Grächen recharge area, seasonal soil frost was rare between 1800 m and 2000 m, as the snowpack was thick enough to insulate the ground, and the soil was warm enough to inhibit deep soil frost. In lower areas, the shallow snowpack enabled the soil to freeze during most winters, whereas at higher areas, deep and persistent soil frost was simulated due to the low underneath heating. A 10-year water-table depth record was used to examine possible large-scale effects of seasonal soil frost. We noted that the water-table rise at snowmelt was lowest at the end of winters with extensive soil frost. However, such winters were characterized by low precipitation, and reduced snow cover. In contrast, winters with little soil frost were mostly snow rich. Consequently, only a reduced number of winters were directly comparable. Considering these winters, the reduction in the water-table rise at snowmelt due to seasonal soil frost varied only between 10 and 30%, as, during snowmelt, most meltwater was able to re-infiltrate into the very permeable ground in lower unfrozen areas. We may assume that a soil with a smaller infiltration capacity can increase the influence of the soil frost on the aquifer recharge. Finally, we investigated the effect of a changing climate on the hydraulic and thermic regimes at different altitudes in the area of Grächen. We assume an increase in the air temperature of 2°C generates deeper soil frost on lower areas, as the resultant smaller snow cover does not insulate the soil from the atmosphere any more. However, it does reduce the soil frost on higher, snow rich areas, due to the warmer air temperature. As a whole, minor changes were simulated on the mean groundwater recharge, as more/less meltwater was able to infiltrate in higher/lower areas. By increasing additionally the precipitation by 15%, the soil frost diminished slightly over the whole catchment. By combining both climate change scenarios, we may expect an increase in extreme events, as, on the one hand, the rainfall intensity increases, and, on the other hand, rain on snow events over frozen soils occurs more often in lower areas. In practice, this work shows the importance of better investigating the hydrothermal behaviour of alpine regions. Such a knowledge is necessary, as more and more efforts are put into managing efficiently, durably and globally the available water resources. This work stresses also the necessity to consider seasonally soil frost in alpine risk management. As an example, flooding is mostly a consequence of strong rain precipitation at high altitudes combined with heavy snowmelt. Obviously, the risk of extreme runoff events increases during frozen winters, when the soil infiltration capacity is further reduced by the soil ice. Also, it has been shown that unstable slopes are mostly related to specific hydrogeological situations, like strong precipitation, which induces a sharp increase in the underneath water circulation. The melt water in spring is hence a potential activating factor, and a frozen soil may reduce the risk of sliding, as less water infiltrates into the ground.

EPFL2003

How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps

Mathias Thierry Pierre Bavay, Michael Lehning, Sebastian Schlögl

This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999-2012). Future temperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2 degrees C target) and for three future time periods (2020-2049, 20452074, 2070-2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50% even for elevations above 3000 m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlier in this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500-800 or 700-1000m for the two non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500m and only 0-2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period but clearly demonstrate a stabilization there-after, comprising much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30% instead of 70 %).

Copernicus GmbH2017