Economic and environmental assessment of alternative production methods for composite aircraft components

The use of carbon fibre reinforced plastics is steadily increasing in the aerospace industry as rising fuel costs and concerns over the environment push airframe manufacturers to improve aircraft efficiency. The high costs associated with manufacturing carbon fibre reinforced components in autoclaves have prompted interest in alternative out-of-autoclave processing methods. In this study a combined cost modelling and life-cycle assessment approach is applied to selected out-of-autoclave production scenarios. Out-of-autoclave specific "prepregs" and resin infused fabrics are cured in thermal and microwave ovens of comparable volume and assessed against a benchmark autoclave scenario. Results showed that materials, in particular carbon fibres, contributed most significantly to component cost and environmental impacts. Resin infusion processes were effective at reducing costs, as reinforcement fabrics and resin were less expensive. Due to the small contribution of energy to total cost, reductions in energy use did not lead to significant savings, although they did improve the environmental performance of the manufacturing process. Out-of-autoclave specific prepregs did not perform as well due to their higher costs, longer associated cycle times and the need for lengthy de-bulking operations. Microwave oven curing offered little in terms of cost reduction and environmental improvement as investment costs were comparable to those of an autoclave, and energy consumption was relatively high compared with traditional thermal oven use. Opportunities for improvement exist if investment costs can be reduced and additional work carried out to promote more efficient transfer of energy. Improvement of the carbon fibre production process would be the most effective approach for reducing impacts and costs from carbon fibre components. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimisation of low pressure processing for honeycomb sandwich structures

Sandra Sequeira Lopes Tavares

Vacuum-bag processing of honeycomb sandwich structures faces particular challenges compared to autoclave sandwich fabrication for aeronautics, a consequence of using, at the most, atmospheric pressure for their manufacturing. In particular, the adhesion of the skin to the honeycomb core is reduced and the skins tend to have higher values of porosity. On the other hand, autoclave processing is expensive, in particular for large structures, and a growing interest has been observed for vacuum-bag only processing of sandwich structures. During honeycomb sandwich cure, the skin represents a barrier to air flow between the honeycomb and the vacuum-bag so the air transport through the prepreg, adhesive and consumables or other additional materials may be a crucial factor to increase skin debulking, reduce void content and extract air from the honeycomb cells. The pressure inside the honeycomb is, therefore, a result of the through thickness permeability to air of the skins and vacuum pump work. The goal of this thesis is to develop methods for improving the low pressure processing of honeycomb sandwich structures by quantifying the through thickness air permeability of fibre reinforced composites during cure and analysing related processing issues and governing phenomena. An experimental method based on a falling pressure measurement was proposed to evaluate the through thickness air permeability of prepregs during cure, with two set-up variants. One concerns the measurement of the inherent air permeability and the other applies to processing conditions, implying the use of both consumables and vacuum-bag. The methods were successfully tested and fulfil the criterions used in soil science for the evaluation of the air permeability. Prepreg and adhesive permeabilities were determined separately and in skin combination. Prepreg permeability to air during cure varies between 10-19 m2 and 10-17 m2 and was found to depend on the evolution of the resin viscosity, which shifts from an initially immobile phase to a mobile one and then back to an immobile phase. The adhesive film was found to have very low initial permeability, at least two orders of magnitude lower than that of the prepreg. A range of initial skin through thickness air permeability could be achieved by perforating the prepreg plies, the adhesive layer, or a combination of both. An adhesive deposition method which results in the centre of honeycomb cells being free of adhesive was also tested. A corresponding range of achievable pressure was measured inside the honeycomb. The evolution of the through thickness permeability with the curing cycle was determined for each case. The adhesive layer was identified as the element that reduces the initial through thickness air permeability the most in skin manufacturing. This suggests that one of the ways of increasing the initial through thickness air permeability of the skin is to modify the permeability of the adhesive layer. The role of the resulting pressure inside the honeycomb on skin-core adhesion and skin quality was then evaluated. Skin permeability was found to control skin-core adhesion through the pressure drop in the honeycomb cells and potential outgassing of the adhesive layer. An optimal range of pressure inside the honeycomb was found to be between 40 kPa and 70 kPa. A process window is proposed for achieving the optimal pressure inside the honeycomb, as a function of the skin permeability and time of vacuum application. A semipreg alternating dry and resin impregnated areas along the fibre bed surface was also investigated as an alternative to prepreg in skin manufacturing. The semipreg through thickness air permeability before cure is approximately three orders of magnitude higher than that of a unidirectional prepreg impregnated with the same resin, thus allowing the reduction of air pressure in the honeycomb. A model was proposed for the air permeability change during cure, as dry areas get infiltrated. Due to resin pouring inside the honeycomb cells, this type of semipreg is viable as a skin only if combined with a material that has low permeability to resin, e.g., a prepreg. The resulting initial pressure in the honeycomb cells might then be tailored to specific needs. Finally, it was possible to produce sandwich samples combining a consolidation system, such as a prepreg, with an infiltration system, as wet lay-up or with a semipreg. The combination of a prepreg with a semipreg revealed to be a very practical and clean system, where it is possible to have the same resin in both materials. Moreover, it allows to tailor the initial honeycomb pressure as well as during cure, and to have the initial permeability assessed.

EPFL2009

Socio-Economic Assessment of Fusion Energy Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment Programme

Denis Bednyagin

Providing safe, clean and affordable energy supply is essential for meeting the basic needs of human society and for supporting economic growth. From the historical perspective, the constantly growing energy use was one of the main factors, which drove the industrialised countries to the current level of prosperity. Meanwhile, in recent decades, the issue of global energy security became a topic of increasing concern in the international policy agenda. On the one hand, the world is facing the problem of exhaustion of most convenient and cheep fuel reserves. The situation is becoming worse, because of the constantly growing demand in developing countries, and the oligopolistic behaviour of major energy exporting countries. On the other hand, the society is becoming more and more sensitive to the environmental pollution problems, caused by the excessive consumption of fossil fuels. In the face of energy security challenge, national governments ought to implement adequate strategies aimed at liberalisation of energy markets, diversification of energy supply mix, enhancement of energy efficiency, encouragement of investments in energy infrastructures, and promotion of innovation in energy sector. In a longer term perspective, the latter point becomes increasingly important, because the world is relying currently on the consumption of non-renewable fossil fuels, and the development of new safe, clean and resource unconstraint energy technologies is vitally needed. In line with this strategy, the major world economies pursue the joint R&D programme on thermonuclear Fusion technology, which represents numerous advantages due to its inherent safety, avoidance of CO2 emissions, relatively small environmental impact, abundance and world-wide uniform distribution of fuel resources. Considering the importance of the projected environmental and economic benefits of Fusion, the questions are raised whether the current level of financial support is sufficient, and what could be the optimal strategy to proceed with the demonstration of Fusion technology, given the time span and potential risks of Fusion RDDD programme. To put these questions into the context, one has to consider the current trends in energy R&D funding, which has seen a drastic decline ( ~50%) over the last three decades. The liberalisation of energy sector poses additional problem due to the fact that free markets partially failure to provide public goods, such as basic science and R&D, because of the so-called spillover effects meaning that the firms are not able to appropriate the integral results of their R&D investments. Regarding the thermonuclear Fusion technology, the decision makers responsible for national energy policies and allocation of public R&D funds may face the following specific questions: What is the expected net socio-economic payoff (social rate of return) of Fusion R&D programme, including both internal and external costs and benefits? What are the reasonable economic arguments that could justify the increase in public funding of the ongoing and future Fusion R&D activities and would stimulate greater involvement of the private sector? What additional value can be obtained through undertaking a more ambitious Fusion R&D programme (accelerated development path), which requires bigger number of experimental facilities, increased funding, and more intense overall efforts of international scientific and industrial community? In order to provide sound arguments for policymakers seeking to optimise public R&D funding, a robust socio-economic evaluation of the whole Fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) programme is needed. At the present stage, prospective analyses of Fusion technology have been emphasised mainly on the investigation of technological issues, estimation of the direct costs of Fusion power and analysis of its potential role in future energy systems. Meanwhile, methodological tools and practical studies aiming at a more comprehensive socio-economic assessment of global long-term energy R&D programmes, such as Fusion, are still incomplete. The primary difficulty concerns the evaluation of positive externalities that may reveal through different types of spillover effects, including but not limited to knowledge, network and market spillovers. While the presence of these effects has been identified in the economic theory and confirmed by empirical studies, their quantitative analysis in the specific case of large scale energy R&D programmes represents some methodological lacuna and deserves further investigation. Another problem relates to the methodology of cost-benefit analysis, which oftentimes ignores the hidden value of R&D projects arising due to the possible flexibility in managerial decisions. In fact, throughout the course of any R&D project, its prospective cash-flows can be significantly improved by pro-active management of different implementation stages, e.g. expanding the production, if market conditions are favourable, or abandoning, if R&D process appears to be unproductive. As a result, the strategic value of any R&D project normally exceeds its net present value (NPV) calculated with the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Although this strategic approach to capital budgeting, known as Real Options, has been propagated recently in several publications dealing with appraisal of lumpy irreversible investments, its practical application in the context of Fusion RDDD programme has not been mastered yet to the required extent. A particular challenge consists in the need for adequate treatment of different types of uncertainty in the model structure, parameters and input data. Accordingly, the main objective of this thesis consists in complementing the existing studies with an in-depth analysis of the positive externalities (spillover benefits) of Fusion RDDD programme and calculation of its strategic real options value subject to different managerial strategies throughout demonstration and deployment stages. Net social present value of Fusion RDDD programme and potential impact of Fusion R&D activities on the economic performance of the involved private companies are estimated using an integrated modelling framework, which includes the following components: (1) assessment of technological potential for deployment of Fusion power plants based on the simulation of multi-regional long term electricity supply scenarios with PLANELEC model; (2) economic evaluation of Fusion RDDD programme and analysis of different implementation strategies using Real Options model; (3) estimation of the economic value of spillover benefits from participation in Fusion R&D projects at the microeconomic level with the help of financial evaluation model; (4) strategic evaluation of Fusion RDDD programme, taking into account both spillover benefits and real options value, and policy recommendations.

EPFL2010

Assessing the life cycle costs and environmental performance of lightweight materials in automobile applications

Christian Ludwig, Jan-Anders Månson, Véronique Michaud, Jérôme Payet, Robert Andrew Witik

Life cycle assessment (LCA) and manufacturing focused life cycle costing are used to evaluate the potential advantages of composites in automotive applications. The life cycle costs and environmental performance of several suitable lightweight polymer composites are quantified and compared against magnesium and steel for a representative component. The results indicate that weight reduction will not always lead to improved environmental performance. Materials offering high weight savings such as carbon fibres and magnesium have been shown to give limited or negative environmental benefits over their life cycles due to increased environmental burdens associated with their production. Lower performance materials such as sheet moulding compounds were found to perform better from a life cycle perspective despite not being recycled. Lighter weight vehicle components were found to be always more costly; however their use did lead to reduced costs for the consumer through lower fuel consumption. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.