The main objective of this research is to develop a bottom-up energy-economic model considering endogenous technological development. The designed model analyzes the feasibility of CCS technologies in the Japanese electricity market to derive an optimum carbon reduction scenario. Two factors, a learning curve based on learning-by-doing and public R&D investment, precede technological progress. The analysis is calculated with a set of scenarios, which is based on alternative assumptions for technological characteristics: chemical and physical carbon absorptive technology. From modeling estimation, we conclude that technological progress reduces the generation costs of conversion technologies with CCS, as a CCS system acquires an additional unit of installation. Generation cost with chemical absorption remarkably reduces its marginal unit cost through a learning mechanism. The supply fraction from a gas-fired power plant increases over the analytical time period. The introduction of CCS reduces carbon emission level 17% compared to the baseline scenario in 2050. Technological progress has little impact on the total system costs; however, learning-by-doing pushes the introduction of CCS into the market rather than into a R&D activity. Research and development efforts in the private sector or knowledge spillover are not modeled in the study; however, they have the potential to contribute to the mitigation of carbon emission as well.
Marc Vielle, Sigit Pria Perdana
François Maréchal, Julia Granacher
François Maréchal, Luc Girardin, Daniel Alexander Florez Orrego, Ivan Daniel Kantor, Shivom Sharma, Meire Ellen Gorete Ribeiro Domingos, Rafael Amorim Leandro De Castro Amoedo, Julia Granacher, Yi Zhao