Imbalance and drivers of carbon emissions embodied in trade along the Belt and Road Initiative

A continuous growth of international trade, especially between developing countries, has greatly increased carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with energy consumption over the past two decades. Given the more intensified intraregional cooperation and trade within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this study aims to trace the imbalance of CO2 embodied in trade between nations in BRI and the rest of the world, providing new insights into the drivers of emissions growth by contrasting consumption, production and technological differences-based perspectives. Results indicate that the BRI contributed to over 50% of global carbon footprint and 92% of its increase in 1995-2015. The BRI was a net exporter of trade-embodied emissions, whose technological-adjusted carbon footprint remained remarkably large due to comparatively high carbon intensity. Geographically, carbon leakage has gradually moved from China and India to other BRI countries, especially to Southeast Asia, West Asia and Africa. Technological change was the key driver of emissions reduction, followed by the change in industrial structure. The growth in final demand per capita was the most important driver for the growth of CO2 emissions in BRI. Improving carbon efficiency remains a critical step for BRI nations to slow down not only emissions growth but also carbon leakage. The paper managed to provide novel insights into the carbon leakage in BRI by contrasting the consumption, production and technological differences-based perspectives, thus being able to better inform policymakers on region-specific low-carbon transition and global climate governance.

The shaping effects of innovation and technology: from micro business model evolution to macro environment sustainability

Qinli Lu

Innovation is a prerequisite guarantee for the development of a country in this new era. It is an important driver not just for corporate growth but also for national social and economic transformation. Considering the strategic supporting role of innovation in the modern economic system, this thesis approaches the shaping effects of innovation and technology mainly from two important micro and macro perspectives, business model evolution and national sustainable development. The first essay takes business model innovation (BMI) in China as an entry point to investigate how novel elements can shape business models. There is a widespread perception that Chinese companies, compared to their Western counterparts, are not good at creating novel products and services. But in the arenas of e-commerce and other digital businesses, Chinese companies have become highly successful. This has led some observers to hypothesize that while Chinese firms may not excel at developing new-to-the-world products and services, they may be good in inventing new-to-the-world business models. To explore this phenomenon, I analyzed 137 suggested innovative business models in detail to investigate new-to-the-world features, yielding an overview of BMI in China. Based on these cases, a theoretical framework was proposed to investigate how innovative features can prompt successful BMI. I summarize the reasons behind BMI in China. The second essay explores the support from open innovation (OI) for BMI based on literature review and some inspiration from the first essay. Theoretical underpinnings are often cited as a necessity to advance the research of BMI. The study proposes that the development of OI and BMI keeps pace within a dynamic innovation process. To develop a consistent body of knowledge about BMI and OI, this conceptual paper sheds light on the relationships between OI and BMI by providing a framework and discussing its implications. The main investigations are as follows: 1) Why OI has strong impacts on BM development; 2) How OI can shape BMs; 3) What support OI can provide for BMI. The third essay analyzes the shaping effects of technology on environmental issues by carrying out an empirical study of tracing the imbalance of carbon emissions embodied in trade. The technological differences among developing and developed nations are tremendous, which have kept having strong impacts not only on economic and societal development but also on environmental sustainability. Thus, this study provides a new and critical perspective to reconsider the imbalance of carbon emissions regionally and globally, revealing essential policy implications for region-specific sustainable development strategies. The thesis makes several important contributions. For micro business model evolution, the thesis develops a theoretical framework to show how the values are delivered in a business model system and how innovative features can further prompt successful business model innovations, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical underpinning from open innovation for business model advance. For macro environmental sustainability, the thesis presents a comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis of carbon emissions embodied in trades of nations within and beyond BRI, contributing to methodological advances of measuring the impacts of technological differences on carbon footprints and emissions leakage, which is largely underexplored in current studies.

EPFL2020

Optimal Methodology to Generate Road Traffic Emissions for Air Quality Modeling

Quoc Bang Ho

Growing population, consuming a large amount of energy such as combustion of fossil fuel, increasing pollutant emissions in the atmosphere are the threats to the sustainable development of our planet in general, and of the air quality in particular. According to the World Health Organization, air pollution causes the death of more than 2 million people per year in developing countries, and millions of people also suffer from various respiratory illnesses. Road traffic is the main source of air pollution in cities and there are large uncertainties associated to this source of pollution. Different models are available to quantify the amount of pollutants released by road traffic. However, these models always require a large amount of information and work, and thus their use results expensive. These limitations are difficult for the study and the management of air quality in cities from the developing world. Thus, it is extremely difficult to design efficient abatement strategies to reduce air pollution. For this reason, it is necessary to develop a new methodology for generating road traffic emissions to contribute to a better management of the urban air quality. The first aim of this PhD thesis is to develop and to validate a new model for generating road traffic emissions in several steps with different levels of complexity. The developed model is called EMISENS. Its main specifications are: (i) EMISENS is able to compute a total amount of emissions and to distribute it in time and in space using a methodology which combines the top-down and the bottom-up approaches; (ii) the model is able to compute the emissions and the uncertainties within a reasonable computing time and (iii) the model formulation is based on well referenced methodology (COPERT IV). The validation of EMISENS model was carried out by its application over Strasbourg, France. The results of EMISENS have been compared with the results of the more complete and complex model Circul'air which is currently used to manage the Strasbourg air quality. After comparing the results of the two models, it appeared that they are very close. This example of application illustrates the capacity of EMISENS to calculate road traffic emission inventory (EI) for cities in developed countries as well as in developing countries. Further on, a complete EI is carried out over Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) by applying an innovative methodology based on the application of the EMISENS model. HCMC is the largest city in Vietnam, it had more than 6 million inhabitants in 2006. It has more than three million vehicles and 28,500 factories in the city. High levels of air pollution are thus very often detected. The purpose of this part of the research consists in applying the EMISENS model to generate road traffic emissions. For the other emission sources, the top-down approach is used for generating the EI. The results show that the road traffic is the main emission source in the city. The motorcycles are responsible of the traffic emissions (94 % of CO, 68% of Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound (NMVOC), 61 % of SO2 and 99 % of CH4). Two scenarios for reducing traffic emissions are evaluated to reduce the HCMC emissions for the year 2015 and 2020. In addition, two other scenarios are the Business as Usual scenarios for the year 2015 and 2020 are also studied to evaluate the traffic emissions in HCMC. The third part of this work consists in applying air quality models to the region of HCMC, the aim here is to study abatement strategies for emission reduction in the city. The results of the simulation show that the plume of O3 is developed in the north-western part of the city. These results are in good agreement with the measurements. Among the four previous emission scenarios, we chose only two reduction emission scenarios to study the effective abatement strategies for the year 2015 and 2020 in using air quality model. These two affective abatement strategies are adopted to help the local government to take decision for managing air quality in HCMC. The 100 Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are run for estimating the uncertainty in the results of air quality simulations. The results of these two abatement strategies showed that if the local government follows the emission control plan: For 2015, the O3 concentration in 2015 will be similar to the present O3 concentration. For 2020, the O3 concentration in 2020 will decrease of around 10% to 30% of O3 in comparison to the actual level. However, the O3 concentration in 2020 is still higher than standard limit. The developed methodology for generating road traffic emissions offers several advantages. It is able to calculate a road traffic emission for both developing and developed countries. The calculation is divided in several steps with different level of complexity. Therefore, this methodology provides the new approach to manage air quality in cities.

EPFL2010

Initiatives to Report and Reduce Embodied Carbon in North American Buildings

Catherine Elvire L. De Wolf

Embodied carbon emissions during material extraction, production, transportation, building construction, and demolition are irreversible. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that the building sector must be zero carbon by 2050. This goal is highly complex because carbon emissions include both embodied carbon as well as operational carbon from heating, cooling, ventilating, and lighting buildings. While standards and technologies exist to lower operational carbon, global and North American strategies to lower embodied carbon are critically lacking. This chapter presents data collection methods that allow the creation of new benchmarks that will hopefully motivate designers to assess and lower the envi- ronmental impact of their North American buildings. A lack of consistent data is not only responsible for the challenge of including embodied carbon in rating schemes, but it is also responsible for the scarcity of available benchmarks.