How to compete with robots by assessing job automation risks and resilient alternatives

The effects of robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market are matters of great social concern. Economists and technology experts are debating at what rate, and to what extent, technology could be used to replace humans in occupations, and what actions could mitigate the unemployment that would result. To this end, it is important to predict which jobs could be automated in the future and what workers could do to move to occupations at lower risk of automation. Here, we calculate the automation risk of almost 1000 existing occupations by quantitatively assessing to what extent robotics and AI abilities can replace human abilities required for those jobs. Furthermore, we introduce a method to find, for any occupation, alternatives that maximize the reduction in automation risk while minimizing the retraining effort. We apply the method to the U.S. workforce composition and show that it could substantially reduce the workers’ automation risk, while the associated retraining effort would be moderate. Governments could use the proposed method to evaluate the unemployment risk of their populations and to adjust educational policies. Robotics companies could use it as a tool to better understand market needs, and members of the public could use it to identify the easiest route to reposition themselves on the job market.

Enactive robot vision

Mototaka Suzuki

The complexity of today's autonomous robots poses a major challenge for Artificial Intelligence. These robots are equipped with sophisticated sensors and mechanical abilities that allow them to enter our homes and interact with humans. For example, today's robots are almost all equipped with vision and several of them can move over rough terrain with wheels or legs. The methods developed so far in Artificial Intelligence, however, are not yet ready to cope with the complexity of the information gathered through the robot sensors and the need for rapid action in partially unknown and dynamic environments. In this thesis, I will argue that the apparent complexity of the environment and of the robot brain can be significantly simplified if perception, behavior, and learning are allowed to co-develop on the same time scale. In doing so, robots become sensitive to, and actively exploit, characteristics of the environment that they can tackle within their own computational and physical constraints. This line of work is grounded on philosophical and psychological research showing that perception is an active process mediated by behavior. However, computational models of active vision are very rare and often rely on architectures that are preprogrammed to detect certain characteristics of the environment. Previous work have shown that complex visual tasks, such as position and size invariant shape recognition as well as navigation, can be tackled with remarkably simple neural architectures generated by a coevolutionary process of active vision and feature selection. Behavioral machines equipped with primitive vision systems and direct pathways between visual and motor neurons were evolved while freely interacting with their environments. I proceed further on this line of investigation and describe the application of this methodology in three situations, namely car driving with an omnidirectional camera, goal-oriented navigation of a humanoid robot, and cooperative tasks by two agents. I will show that these systems develop sensitivity to a number of oriented, retinotopic, visual features – oriented edges, corners, height – and a behavioral repertoire to locate, bring, and keep these features in sensitive regions of the vision system that allow them to accomplish their goals. In a second set of experiments, I will show that active vision can be exploited by the robot to perform anticipatory exploration of the environment in a task that requires landmark-based navigation. Evolved robots exploit an internal expectation system that makes use of active exploration to check for expected events in the environment. I will describe a third set of experiments where, in addition to an evolutionary process, the visual system of the robot can develop receptive fields by means of unsupervised Hebbian learning and show that these receptive fields are significantly affected by the behavior of the system and differ from those predicted by most computational models of visual cortex. Finally, I will show that these robots replicate the performance deficiencies observed in experiments of motor deprivation with kitten when they are exposed to the same type of motor deprivations. Furthermore, the analyses of our robot brains suggest an explanation for the deficiencies observed in kitten that have not yet been fully understood.

EPFL2007

Technology Strategy in Dynamic Environments: A Computational Analysis of the Automation of Routines, the Organization of AI, and the Evaluation of Technology Risk

In this dissertation, I develop theory and evidence to argue that new technologies are central to how firms organize to create and capture value. I use computational methods such as reinforcement learning and probabilistic topic modeling to investigate three topics: the automation of routines, the organization of artificial intelligence (AI), and the evaluation of technology risk. Overall, I argue that new technologies are not a panacea for the firm but require deliberate strategic planning to manage the potential downsides of myopic automation, AI interdependencies, and the disclosure of technology risks.In the first essay, I argue that while automation can increase productivity by reducing the costs of coordinating individuals, the automation of routines can also incur an indirect opportunity cost due to slow adaptation to environmental change. I develop a reinforcement learning simulation to model the impact of automation on the returns from the division of labor in dynamic environments and to show how automation incurs opportunity costs through lost learning and slow adaptation. Moreover, automation can be suboptimal when it brings about myopic behavior, i.e. high returns from the division of labor in the short term, but negative returns in the long term. Given the simulation results, I argue that firms need dynamic routines to simultaneously balance learning and automation. I open-source the simulation platform as OrgSim-RL on GitHub.In the second essay, I argue that a data-driven culture - what I define as a Data Clan - can help to coordinate complex interdependencies between AI components within a firm. I analyze in-depth semi-structured interview data with a hierarchical stochastic block model (hSBM) and hand-coding to find that managers focus primarily on building a strong culture and establishing high-quality data assets when allocating resources to AI initiatives. Given the results, I inductively develop implications for theory and argue that the emergence of a Data Clan can be a governance mechanism to reduce coordination frictions and build a competitive advantage in the age of AI.In the third essay, I argue that investors require a higher initial return to take on more technology risk disclosure during an IPO. I quantify the magnitude of disclosed risk and the risk disclosure topics based on a latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) topic model of IPO prospectus text and find a return-for-risk association between text-based technology risk disclosure and underpricing. The study also finds evidence that owning granted patents is associated with a lower return-for-risk association, suggesting that intellectual property allows the disclosure of risk without losing the competitive advantage. I open-source the code for quantifying risk disclosure as RiskyData-LDA on GitHub.In summary, this dissertation develops theory and finds evidence across three essays to argue that leveraging new technologies requires deliberate strategic planning to manage potential downsides of new technologies, such as the opportunity costs of automation, coordination costs, and costs associated with raising capital. The results suggest three mitigating solutions: dynamic routines to balance learning and automation, a Data Clan to improve coordination, and disclosure through patents to reduce underpricing.

EPFL2022

Enactive robot vision

Mototaka Suzuki

EPFL2007

Technology Strategy in Dynamic Environments: A Computational Analysis of the Automation of Routines, the Organization of AI, and the Evaluation of Technology Risk

EPFL2022