A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Superalloys using WORLD6; Sufficiency for Civilian and Military Aviation Needs

The extraction, supply, market price and recycling of the metals used for superalloys were modelled using the systems dynamics model WORLD6. Peak production per capita (Supply Security) and stock-in-use per capita (Utility of Use) as well as resource stock lifetime during self-supply (Resilience) are key indicators. The resource estimates made resulted in significantly larger estimates than previous studies for nickel, tantalum, niobium, wolfram, molybdenum, cobalt, rhenium, titanium, zirconium and hafnium. The study shows that while for some elements (Co, Nb, Ta, W, Ni, Re), the size of the extractable resource may pose a challenge. For other elements, the intricacies and interdependencies of production will provide challenging limitations (Co, Re, Hf). Resource stocks of key metals are asymmetrically distributed among the larger powers and their dependants, posing strategic challenges for the future. Future patterns of scarcity, in space and time, of key resources may jeopardize strategic supply advantages presently enjoyed by major state actors. On the global scale, many of the key metals will run into hard scarcity around 2080-2100 AD, where the amounts demanded simply cannot be delivered. The recycling rates are too low for some of the key metals used in superalloys. This is contributing to shorter society service time that what could have been achieved otherwise. Both market mechanisms and other incentives through governance can be used for getting a better recycling of the important metals. Without these metals, several technologies will become difficult to produce, with serious implications for both military and civilian uses of high performance hardware. Additionally, increased competition between various technology sectors, e.g. aerospace, energy production and the IT-sectors.