Causal modelling of heavy-tailed variables and confounders with application to river flow

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Scale effects on efficiency and profitability in the Swiss banking sector

Andreas Fuster

This paper analyzes efficiency and profitability in the Swiss banking sector over the period 1997–2019. We find strong evidence for scale economies: for most banks in the sample, efficiency and profitability increase with bank size. Using an instrumental v ...

2022

Auto-tuning deep forest for shear stiffness prediction of headed stud connectors

Xianlin Wang, Yuqing Liu

The shear stiffness of headed stud connector is a critical parameter for the calculation of deflection and inter-facial shear force for steel-concrete composite structure. Thus, this study presented a promising data-driven model auto-tuning Deep Forest (AT ...

2022

Predicting in Uncertain Environments: Methods for Robust Machine Learning

Paul Thierry Yves Rolland

One of the main goal of Artificial Intelligence is to develop models capable of providing valuable predictions in real-world environments. In particular, Machine Learning (ML) seeks to design such models by learning from examples coming from this same envi ...

EPFL2022

Computational Approaches for Studying Dietary Behaviors with Digital Traces

Kristina Gligoric

Human nutrition and dietary habits shape our health, daily life, societies, the environment, and life on earth in general. However, it remains challenging to understand and attempt to change dietary behaviors using traditional methods due to measurement an ...

EPFL2022

Hiding in Plain Sight: The Issue of Hidden Variables

Yimon Aye, Mahdi Assari

Here we discuss "hidden variables", which are typically introduced during an experiment as a consequence of the application of two independent variables together to create a stimulus. With increased sophistication in modern chemical biology tools and relat ...

AMER CHEMICAL SOC2022

Functional peaks-over-threshold analysis

Anthony Christopher Davison, Raphaël Gérard Théodore Michel Marie de Deloÿe et Fourcade de Fondeville

Peaks-over-threshold analysis using the generalised Pareto distribution is widely applied in modelling tails of univariate random variables, but much information may be lost when complex extreme events are studied using univariate results. In this paper, w ...

WILEY2022

Filtered data and eigenfunction estimators for statistical inference of multiscale and interacting diffusion processes

Andrea Zanoni

We study the problem of learning unknown parameters of stochastic dynamical models from data. Often, these models are high dimensional and contain several scales and complex structures. One is then interested in obtaining a reduced, coarse-grained descript ...

EPFL2022

First-person experience cannot rescue causal structure theories from the unfolding argument

Michael Herzog, Adrien Christophe Doerig, Aaron Schurger

We recently put forward an argument, the Unfolding Argument (UA), that integrated information theory (IIT) and other causal structure theories are either already falsified or unfalsifiable, which provoked significant criticism. It seems that we and the cri ...

Elsevier2022

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