Extreme Value Theory: Maximum Distribution

In course

Description

This lecture delves into the theory of extreme values, focusing on the distribution of maximum values of independent and identically distributed random variables. The instructor explains the concept of rescaling and approximating unknown distributions to obtain non-degenerate limit distributions. The lecture covers the extremal types theorem, discussing the parameters that define the limiting distribution. It also explores different types of distributions based on shape parameters, such as the Fréchet and Gumbel distributions. The exceedance theorem is introduced as an alternative approach to modeling extremes, emphasizing the importance of threshold exceedances. The connection between the Generalized Pareto Distribution and the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution is highlighted, showcasing the flexibility and applicability of these models in analyzing extreme events.

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https://mediaspace.epfl.ch/media/0_arjrihi2

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Related concepts (23)

Generalized extreme value distribution

In probability theory and statistics, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions developed within extreme value theory to combine the Gumbel, Fréchet and Weibull families also known as type I, II and III extreme value distributions. By the extreme value theorem the GEV distribution is the only possible limit distribution of properly normalized maxima of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables.

Gumbel distribution

In probability theory and statistics, the Gumbel distribution (also known as the type-I generalized extreme value distribution) is used to model the distribution of the maximum (or the minimum) of a number of samples of various distributions. This distribution might be used to represent the distribution of the maximum level of a river in a particular year if there was a list of maximum values for the past ten years. It is useful in predicting the chance that an extreme earthquake, flood or other natural disaster will occur.

Heavy-tailed distribution

In probability theory, heavy-tailed distributions are probability distributions whose tails are not exponentially bounded: that is, they have heavier tails than the exponential distribution. In many applications it is the right tail of the distribution that is of interest, but a distribution may have a heavy left tail, or both tails may be heavy. There are three important subclasses of heavy-tailed distributions: the fat-tailed distributions, the long-tailed distributions, and the subexponential distributions.

Fréchet distribution

The Fréchet distribution, also known as inverse Weibull distribution, is a special case of the generalized extreme value distribution. It has the cumulative distribution function where α > 0 is a shape parameter. It can be generalised to include a location parameter m (the minimum) and a scale parameter s > 0 with the cumulative distribution function Named for Maurice Fréchet who wrote a related paper in 1927, further work was done by Fisher and Tippett in 1928 and by Gumbel in 1958.

Generalized beta distribution

In probability and statistics, the generalized beta distribution is a continuous probability distribution with four shape parameters (however it's customary to make explicit the scale parameter as a fifth parameter, while the location parameter is usually left implicit), including more than thirty named distributions as limiting or special cases. It has been used in the modeling of income distribution, stock returns, as well as in regression analysis.