ARCH and GARCH Models: Volatility Forecasting

Description

This lecture covers ARCH (autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic) and GARCH (generalized ARCH) models, which are essential for daily risk-factor changes. The instructor explains the properties, estimation of parameters, and volatility forecasting using these models.

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2 (two) is a number, numeral and digit. It is the natural number following 1 and preceding 3. It is the smallest and only even prime number. Because it forms the basis of a duality, it has religious and spiritual significance in many cultures. The digit used in the modern Western world to represent the number 2 traces its roots back to the Indic Brahmic script, where "2" was written as two horizontal lines. The modern Chinese and Japanese languages (and Korean Hanja) still use this method.

In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimating the parameters of an assumed probability distribution, given some observed data. This is achieved by maximizing a likelihood function so that, under the assumed statistical model, the observed data is most probable. The point in the parameter space that maximizes the likelihood function is called the maximum likelihood estimate. The logic of maximum likelihood is both intuitive and flexible, and as such the method has become a dominant means of statistical inference.

Estimation theory is a branch of statistics that deals with estimating the values of parameters based on measured empirical data that has a random component. The parameters describe an underlying physical setting in such a way that their value affects the distribution of the measured data. An estimator attempts to approximate the unknown parameters using the measurements.

In statistics, linear regression is a linear approach for modelling the relationship between a scalar response and one or more explanatory variables (also known as dependent and independent variables). The case of one explanatory variable is called simple linear regression; for more than one, the process is called multiple linear regression. This term is distinct from multivariate linear regression, where multiple correlated dependent variables are predicted, rather than a single scalar variable.

In statistics, generalized least squares (GLS) is a method used to estimate the unknown parameters in a linear regression model when there is a certain degree of correlation between the residuals in the regression model. Least squares and weighted least squares may need to be more statistically efficient and prevent misleading inferences. GLS was first described by Alexander Aitken in 1935. In standard linear regression models one observes data on n statistical units.