Maximising Climate and Employment Benefits From COVID-19 Recovery Packages: A Multi-Model Assessment of Optimal Clean Technology Portfolios

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts, scientists and policymakers alike have been advocating for green recovery packages focusing on clean energy technologies, to align economic recovery with climate change mitigation. In this study, we use three energy-economy models combined with portfolio analysis to estimate the emissions and employment benefits of a potential allocation of announced recovery packages towards clean energy projects, in six major emitting regions: Canada, China, EU, India, Japan, and USA. Despite trade-offs and regional differences, we find potential technology portfolios that both reduce emissions and increase employment across all regions and models. Solar PV is the dominant technology for achieving both emissions cuts and employment gains in most countries, while optimal packages also include funds for other low-carbon technologies. The selected packages significantly contribute to achieving NDC objectives and reducing pandemic-driven unemployment in the EU, China, and Canada. In USA and India, the proposed packages are too small to make a significant contribution. We find strong model structure-driven differences in outcomes, confirming the relevance of applying diverse models to avoid false precision in outcomes.