Publication

Climate Change Contributions to Increasing Compound Flooding Risk in New York City

Monika Feldmann
2024
Journal paper
Abstract

Efforts to meaningfully quantify the changes in coastal compound surge- and rainfall -driven flooding hazard associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in a warming climate have increased in recent years. Despite substantial progress, however, obtaining actionable details such as the spatially and temporally varying distribution and proximal causes of changing flooding hazard in cities remains a persistent challenge. Here, for the first time, physics -based hydrodynamic flood models driven by rainfall and storm surge simultaneously are used to estimate the magnitude and frequency of compound flooding events. We apply this to the particular case of New York City. We find that sea level rise (SLR) alone will increase the TC and ETC compound flooding hazard more significantly than changes in storm climatology as the climate warms. We also project that the probability of destructive Sandy -like compound flooding will increase by up to 5 times by the end of the century. Our results have strong implications for climate change adaptation in coastal communities.

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Related concepts (37)
Coastal flooding
Coastal flooding occurs when dry and low-lying land is submerged (flooded) by seawater. The range of a coastal flooding is a result of the elevation of floodwater that penetrates the inland which is controlled by the topography of the coastal land exposed to flooding. The seawater can flood the land via several different paths: direct flooding, overtopping of a barrier, or breaching of a barrier. Coastal flooding is largely a natural event. Due to the effects of climate change (e.g.
Tropical cyclone
A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by different names, including hurricane (ˈhʌrᵻkən,_-keɪn), typhoon (taɪ'fuːn), tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, or simply cyclone.
Climate change
In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global average temperature is more rapid than previous changes, and is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices increase greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide and methane.
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