Statistical Analysis of Chao’s Immune System Simulation

Modeling the immune system (IS) means putting together a set of assumptions about its components (cells and organs) and their interactions. Simulations of a model show joint behavior of the components, which for complex realistic models is often impossible to find analytically. Simulations allow us to experiment on how initial concentrations and properties of the immune cells and viruses impact the IS behavior, and gain better quantitative and qualitative insight into how the IS works and why different behavior patterns occur. A simulation, once it has been created, must be reviewed both statistically and analytically as well as validated from the biological point of view. We analyzed Chao’s immune system simulation [1][2] from a statistical and analytical point. We explicited both the Markov chain which was simulated and the underlying process on which Chao’s stage-structured approach was built. Furthermore, we established a test protocol for timestep validation which Chao’s simulator passed. We evaluated Chao’s simulator’s dependence on the random number generator, which was shown to be negligible. Finally, we evaluated the simulator output and our major result is the discovery of a secondary response to a primary infection, an occurrence is not shown in Chao’s dissertation. A tertiary response to the infection is never possible due to the size of the secondary response caused by memory cells.