Markov chainA Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event. Informally, this may be thought of as, "What happens next depends only on the state of affairs now." A countably infinite sequence, in which the chain moves state at discrete time steps, gives a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC). A continuous-time process is called a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC).
Markov random fieldIn the domain of physics and probability, a Markov random field (MRF), Markov network or undirected graphical model is a set of random variables having a Markov property described by an undirected graph. In other words, a random field is said to be a Markov random field if it satisfies Markov properties. The concept originates from the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick model. A Markov network or MRF is similar to a Bayesian network in its representation of dependencies; the differences being that Bayesian networks are directed and acyclic, whereas Markov networks are undirected and may be cyclic.
Markov chain Monte CarloIn statistics, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprise a class of algorithms for sampling from a probability distribution. By constructing a Markov chain that has the desired distribution as its equilibrium distribution, one can obtain a sample of the desired distribution by recording states from the chain. The more steps that are included, the more closely the distribution of the sample matches the actual desired distribution. Various algorithms exist for constructing chains, including the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm.
Monte Carlo integrationIn mathematics, Monte Carlo integration is a technique for numerical integration using random numbers. It is a particular Monte Carlo method that numerically computes a definite integral. While other algorithms usually evaluate the integrand at a regular grid, Monte Carlo randomly chooses points at which the integrand is evaluated. This method is particularly useful for higher-dimensional integrals.
Markov information sourceIn mathematics, a Markov information source, or simply, a Markov source, is an information source whose underlying dynamics are given by a stationary finite Markov chain. An information source is a sequence of random variables ranging over a finite alphabet , having a stationary distribution. A Markov information source is then a (stationary) Markov chain , together with a function that maps states in the Markov chain to letters in the alphabet .
Orthogonality principleIn statistics and signal processing, the orthogonality principle is a necessary and sufficient condition for the optimality of a Bayesian estimator. Loosely stated, the orthogonality principle says that the error vector of the optimal estimator (in a mean square error sense) is orthogonal to any possible estimator. The orthogonality principle is most commonly stated for linear estimators, but more general formulations are possible. Since the principle is a necessary and sufficient condition for optimality, it can be used to find the minimum mean square error estimator.
Markov modelIn probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to model pseudo-randomly changing systems. It is assumed that future states depend only on the current state, not on the events that occurred before it (that is, it assumes the Markov property). Generally, this assumption enables reasoning and computation with the model that would otherwise be intractable. For this reason, in the fields of predictive modelling and probabilistic forecasting, it is desirable for a given model to exhibit the Markov property.
Stationary distributionStationary distribution may refer to: A special distribution for a Markov chain such that if the chain starts with its stationary distribution, the marginal distribution of all states at any time will always be the stationary distribution. Assuming irreducibility, the stationary distribution is always unique if it exists, and its existence can be implied by positive recurrence of all states. The stationary distribution has the interpretation of the limiting distribution when the chain is irreducible and aperiodic.
Kolmogorov equationsIn probability theory, Kolmogorov equations, including Kolmogorov forward equations and Kolmogorov backward equations, characterize continuous-time Markov processes. In particular, they describe how the probability that a continuous-time Markov process is in a certain state changes over time. Writing in 1931, Andrei Kolmogorov started from the theory of discrete time Markov processes, which are described by the Chapman–Kolmogorov equation, and sought to derive a theory of continuous time Markov processes by extending this equation.
Hamiltonian Monte CarloThe Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm (originally known as hybrid Monte Carlo) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method for obtaining a sequence of random samples which converge to being distributed according to a target probability distribution for which direct sampling is difficult. This sequence can be used to estimate integrals with respect to the target distribution (expected values).
