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Concept
Peak gas
Summary
Peak gas is the point in time when the maximum global natural gas (fossil gas) production rate will be reached, after which the rate of production will enter its terminal decline. Although demand is peaking in the United States and Europe, it continues to rise globally due to consumers in Asia, especially China. Natural gas is a fossil fuel formed from plant matter over the course of millions of years. Natural gas derived from fossil fuels is a non-renewable energy source; however, methane can be renewable in other forms such as biogas. Peak coal was in 2013, and peak oil is forecast to occur before peak gas. One forecast is for natural gas demand to peak in 2035.
The concept of peak gas follows from Hubbert peak theory, which is most commonly associated with peak oil. Hubbert saw gas, coal and oil as natural resources, each of which would peak in production and eventually run out for a region, a country, or the world.
The world gets almost one quarter of its energy from natural gas. The largest increments in future gas demand are expected to come from developing countries.
Hubbert’s original peak theory predicts that natural gas will experience three equally spaced events: first, the rate of discoveries will peak, then X years later reserves will peak, and finally X years after peak reserves, gas production will peak at the same rate as the previous peak of discoveries. For the United States, for instance, Hubbert projected that the natural gas discovery rate was peaking in 1962 at about per year. From his curves, he predicted that proved reserves would peak eight years later, in 1970, and that production would peak after another eight years, in 1978, at per year, about equal to the rate of peak discoveries.
Of the three peaks, Hubbert found the peak in discoveries most difficult to define, because of large year-to-year scatter, and the phenomenon of “reserve growth.” Initial estimates of a discovery are usually much lower than ultimate recovery, especially if the conservative estimate of proven reserves is the measure.
Official source
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