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Concept# Short-rate model

Summary

A short-rate model, in the context of interest rate derivatives, is a mathematical model that describes the future evolution of interest rates by describing the future evolution of the short rate, usually written r_t ,.
The short rate
Under a short rate model, the stochastic state variable is taken to be the instantaneous spot rate. The short rate, r_t ,, then, is the (continuously compounded, annualized) interest rate at which an entity can borrow money for an infinitesimally short period of time from time t. Specifying the current short rate does not specify the entire yield curve. However, no-arbitrage arguments show that, under some fairly relaxed technical conditions, if we model the evolution of r_t , as a stochastic process under a risk-neutral measure Q, then the price at time t of a zero-coupon bond maturing at time T with a payoff of 1 is given by
: P(t,T) = \operat

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Changing interest rates constitute one of the major risk sources for banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a challenging task. This volume gives an introduction to the mathematics of term-structure models in continuous time. It includes practical aspects for fixed-income markets such as day-count conventions, duration of coupon-paying bonds and yield curve construction; arbitrage theory; short-rate models; the Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology; consistent term-structure parametrizations; affine diffusion processes and option pricing with Fourier transform; LIBOR market models; and credit risk. The focus is on a mathematically straightforward but rigorous development of the theory. Students, researchers and practitioners will find this volume very useful. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises, that provides source for homework and exam questions. Readers are expected to be familiar with elementary Itô calculus, basic probability theory, and real and complex analysis.

We give a complete characterization of affine term structure models based on a general nonnegative Markov short rate process. This applies to the classical CIR model but includes as well short rate processes with jumps.We provide a link to the theory of branching processes and show how CBI-processes naturally enter the field of term structure modelling. Using Markov semigroup theory we exploit the full structure behind an affine term structure model and provide a deeper understanding of some well-known properties of the CIR model. Based on these fundamental results we construct a new short rate model with jumps, which extends the CIR model and still gives closed form expressions for bond options.

We give a complete characterization of affine term structure (ATS) models based on a general non-negative Markov short rate process. This applies to the classical Cox—Ingersoll—Ross (CIR) model but includes as well short rate processes with jumps. We provide a link to the theory of branching processes and show how CBI-processes naturally enter the field of term structure modelling. Using Markov semigroup theory we exploit the full structure behind an ATS and provide a deeper understanding of some well-known properties of the CIR model. As a byproduct we get that any conservative CBI-process is a semimartingale.

2002