Reference class problem

Summary

In statistics, the reference class problem is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the probability applicable to a particular case. For example, to estimate the probability of an aircraft crashing, we could refer to the frequency of crashes among various different sets of aircraft: all aircraft, this make of aircraft, aircraft flown by this company in the last ten years, etc. In this example, the aircraft for which we wish to calculate the probability of a crash is a member of many different classes, in which the frequency of crashes differs. It is not obvious which class we should refer to for this aircraft. In general, any case is a member of very many classes among which the frequency of the attribute of interest differs. The reference class problem discusses which class is the most appropriate to use. More formally, many arguments in statistics take the form of a statistical syllogism: proportion of are is an Therefore, the chance that is a is is called the "reference class" and is the "attribute class" and is the individual object. How is one to choose an appropriate class ? In Bayesian statistics, the problem arises as that of deciding on a prior probability for the outcome in question (or when considering multiple outcomes, a prior probability distribution). John Venn stated in 1876 that "every single thing or event has an indefinite number of properties or attributes observable in it, and might therefore be considered as belonging to an indefinite number of different classes of things", leading to problems with how to assign probabilities to a single case. He used as an example the probability that John Smith, a consumptive Englishman aged fifty, will live to sixty-one. The name "problem of the reference class" was given by Hans Reichenbach, who wrote, "If we are asked to find the probability holding for an individual future event, we must first incorporate the event into a suitable reference class. An individual thing or event may be incorporated in many reference classes, from which different probabilities will result.

Official source

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_problem

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Related publications (1)

Multi-level preconditioner for solving the Navier-Stokes equations in hemodynamics applications

Dana Christen

We present a multi-level algorithm to approximate the inverse of the fluid block in a Navier-Stokes saddle-point matrix where the coarse level is defined as a restriction of the degrees of freedom to those of lower order finite elements. A one-level scheme involving P1 and P2 finite elements is studied in details and several transfer operators are compared by means of two reference problems. Numerical results show that restriction and prolongation operators based on L2 projection lead to faster GMRES convergence of the fluid part, for all the examined combinations of mesh size, time step and Reynolds number.

2013

Related concepts (2)

Reference class problem

Statistics

Statistics (from German: Statistik, () "description of a state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal".