Pierre Dillenbourg, Nevena Dresevic, Arzu Güneysu Özgür, Marija Katanic, Nihal Ezgi Yücetürk
This paper presents our approach to predicting future error-related events in a robot-mediated gamified phys- ical training activity for stroke patients. The ability to predict future error under such conditions suggests the existence of distinguishable features and separated class characteristics between the casual gameplay state and error prune state in the data. Identifying such features provides valuable insight to creating individually tailored, adaptive games as well as possible ways to increase rehabilitation success by patients. Considering the time-series nature of sensory data created by motor actions of patients we employed a predictive analysis strategy on carefully engineered features of sequenced data. We split the data into fixed time windows and explored logistic regression models, decision trees, and recurrent neural networks to predict the likelihood of a patient making an error based on the features from the time window before the error. We achieved an 84.4% F1-score with a 0.76 ROC value in our best model for predicting motion accuracy related errors. Moreover, we computed the permutation importance of the features to explain which ones are more indicative of future errors.