Concept

Forecast skill

Related publications (21)

Inventory routing with non-stationary stochastic demands

Michel Bierlaire, Sacha Varone, Mohammad Yousef Maknoon, Iliya Dimitrov Markov

We solve a rich logistical problem inspired from practice, in which a heterogeneous fixed fleet of vehicles is used for collecting recyclable waste from large containers over a finite planning horizon. Each container is equipped with a sensor, which commun ...

2016

Opportunities for energy efficient computing: a study of inexact general purpose processors for high-performance and big-data applications

Christian Enz, Jérémy Lucien Maurice Schlachter

In this paper, we demonstrate that disproportionate gains are possible through a simple devise for injecting inexactness or approximation into the hardware architecture of a computing system with a general purpose template including a complete memory hiera ...

2015

An information-theoretical perspective on weighted ensemble forecasts

Steven Vincent Weijs, Nicolaas Cornelis van de Giesen

This paper presents an information--theoretical method for weighting ensemble forecasts with new information. Weighted ensemble forecasts can be used to adjust the distribution that an existing ensemble of time series represents, without modifying the valu ...

Elsevier2013

A robust framework for probabilistic precipitations downscaling from an ensemble of climate predictions applied to Switzerland

André Mermoud, Bettina Schaefli, Xavier Beuchat

Rainfall is poorly modeled by general circulation models (GCMs) and requires appropriate downscaling for local-scale hydrological impact studies. Such downscaling methods should be robust and accurate (to handle, e.g., extreme events and uncertainties), bu ...

2012

Coastal atmospheric temperature prediction in Greenland using support vector regression

Matthew Josef Parkan

In the recent years, global climate change has induced evergrowing loss of sea ice in the Arctic. As the sea ice disappears, albedo diminishes and the sea surface is more likely to be warmed by incoming solar radiation. With the right wind conditions, this ...

2012

Accounting for Observational Uncertainty in Forecast Verification: An Information-Theoretical View on Forecasts, Observations, and Truth

Steven Vincent Weijs, Nicolaas Cornelis van de Giesen

Recently, an information-theoretical decomposition of Kullback–Leibler divergence into uncertainty, reliability, and resolution was introduced. In this article, this decomposition is generalized to the case where the observation is uncertain. Along with a ...

2011

Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts

Javier García Hernández

In alpine valleys with strong urban development, river training works for flood safety become more and more difficult to implement because of economic and environmental constraints. Thus flood management has a great importance especially in river basins eq ...

EPFL - LCH2011

Flood Management in a Complex River Basin with a Real-Time Decision Support System Based on Hydrological Forecasts

Javier García Hernández

During the last decades, the Upper Rhone River basin has been hit by several flood events causing significant damages in excess of 500 million Swiss Francs. From this situation, the 3rd Rhône river training project was planned in order to improve the flood ...

EPFL2011

Kullback–Leibler Divergence as a Forecast Skill Score with Classic Reliability–Resolution–Uncertainty Decomposition

Steven Vincent Weijs, Nicolaas Cornelis van de Giesen

This paper presents a score that can be used for evaluating probabilistic forecasts of multicategory events. The score is a reinterpretation of the logarithmic score or ignorance score, now formulated as the relative entropy or Kullback–Leibler divergence ...

2010

Why hydrological predictions should be evaluated using information theory

Steven Vincent Weijs, Nicolaas Cornelis van de Giesen

Probabilistic predictions are becoming increasingly popular in hydrology. Equally important are methods to test such predictions, given the topical debate on uncertainty analysis in hydrology. Also in the special case of hydrological forecasting, there is ...

2010

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