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This Guideline proposes a protocol for the validation of forensic evaluation methods at the source level, using the Likelihood Ratio framework as defined within the Bayes' inference model. In the context of the inference of identity of source, the Likeliho ...
In this paper, we use probability theory to prove in suitable conditions the equivalence of equilibrium time correlation functions of microscopic density fields with the time correlation functions of local macroscopic density fields evolved by hydrodynamic ...
We present a probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard posed by volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) and their potential impact on the built environment. A model named Great Balls of Fire (GBF) is introduced to describe ballistic trajectories of VBPs a ...
In the context of dam safety, reliable safety flood estimation methods are necessary to guarantee a sufficiently designed spillway capacity. Todayâs state of the art allows to approach this topic under different angles. Statistical extrapolations are com ...
Venting of turbidity currents is known as an efficient measure to prevent reservoir sedimentation and is applied in many reservoirs globally. It has several economic and ecological advantages compared with other evacuation methods. In the literature, numer ...
This paper presents an approach to provide demand response services with buildings. Each building receives a normalized signal that tells it to increase or decrease its power demand, and the building is free to implement any suitable strategy to follow the ...
When presented with a difficult perceptual decision, human observers are able to make metacognitive judgements of subjective certainty. Such judgements can be made independently of and prior to any overt response to a sensory stimulus, presumably via inter ...
Newcomb's problem is viewed as a dynamic game with an agent and a superior being as players. Depending on whether or not a risk-neutral agent's confidence in the superior being, as measured by a subjective probability assigned to the move order, exceeds a ...
In this paper we consider the problem of navigating emergency rescuers in buildings. The objective of the rescuer is to reach several critical regions in a building endangered by a spreading hazard and leave safely. We consider stochastic finite state mode ...
This paper provides a coherent method for scenario aggregation addressing model uncertainty. It is based on divergence minimization from a reference probability measure subject to scenario constraints. An example from regulatory practice motivates the defi ...