Stratified sampling | EPFL Graph Search

In statistics, stratified sampling is a method of sampling from a population which can be partitioned into subpopulations. In statistical surveys, when subpopulations within an overall population vary, it could be advantageous to sample each subpopulation (stratum) independently. Stratification is the process of dividing members of the population into homogeneous subgroups before sampling. The strata should define a partition of the population. That is, it should be collectively exhaustive and mutually exclusive: every element in the population must be assigned to one and only one stratum. Then simple random sampling is applied within each stratum. The objective is to improve the precision of the sample by reducing sampling error. It can produce a weighted mean that has less variability than the arithmetic mean of a simple random sample of the population. In computational statistics, stratified sampling is a method of variance reduction when Monte Carlo methods are used to estima

Mechanical intelligence for learning embodied sensor-object relationships

Ahalya Prabhakar

Intelligence involves processing sensory experiences into representations useful for prediction. Understanding sensory experiences and building these contextual representations without prior knowledge of sensor models and environment is a challenging unsupervised learning problem. Current machine learning methods process new sensory data using prior knowledge defined by either domain knowledge or datasets. When datasets are not available, data acquisition is needed, though automating exploration in support of learning is still an unsolved problem. Here we develop a method that enables agents to efficiently collect data for learning a predictive sensor model-without requiring domain knowledge, human input, or previously existing data-using ergodicity to specify the data acquisition process. This approach is based entirely on data-driven sensor characteristics rather than predefined knowledge of the sensor model and its physical characteristics. We learn higher quality models with lower energy expenditure during exploration for data acquisition compared to competing approaches, including both random sampling and information maximization. In addition to applications in autonomy, our approach provides a potential model of how animals use their motor control to develop high quality models of their sensors (sight, sound, touch) before having knowledge of their sensor capabilities or their surrounding environment. Information-based search strategies are relevant for the learning of interacting agents dynamics and usually need predefined data. The authors propose a method to collect data for learning a predictive sensor model, without requiring domain knowledge, human input, or previously existing data.

NATURE PORTFOLIO2022

Multivariate extremes over a random number of observations

Simone Padoan, Stefano Rizzelli

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated data, such as maxima of a random number of observations, are considered. We derive a limit theorem concerning the attractors for the distributions of the aggregated data, which boil down to a new family of max-stable distributions. We also connect the extremal dependence structure of classical max-stable distributions and that of our new family of max-stable distributions. Using an inversion method, we derive a semiparametric composite-estimator for the extremal dependence of the unobservable data, starting from a preliminary estimator of the extremal dependence of the aggregated data. Furthermore, we develop the large-sample theory of the composite-estimator and illustrate its finite-sample performance via a simulation study.

WILEY2020

Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Stochastic Epidemics

Andrea Kraus

This work is concerned with the estimation of the spreading potential of the disease in the initial stages of an epidemic. A speedy and accurate estimation is important for determining whether or not interventions are necessary to prevent a major outbreak. At the same time, the information available in the early stages is scarce and data collection imperfect. We consider an epidemic in a large susceptible population, and address the estimation based on temporally aggregated counts of new cases that are subject to unknown random under-reporting. We allow for an influence of the detection process on the evolution of the epidemic. While the proportion of infectious individuals in the population is small, the role of chance in the spread of the disease may be substantial. Therefore, stochastic epidemic models are applied. As these are difficult to analyse, the time evolution of the number of infectious individuals is approximated by branching processes. We study the estimation in a partially observed Galton–Watson process and in a partially observed linear birth and death process; and in each case focus on the parameter characterising the growth of the process. We aim at estimators that perform well in the asymptotic sense where a single trajectory is observed over a long period of time, and study the asymptotics conditionally on the eventual explosion of the process. The partially observed Galton–Watson process has been recently proposed in the literature as a model for the initial stages of an epidemic. Its probabilistic structure has been explored and estimation has been partially addressed, in that consistent estimators have been constructed. However, the estimation-related uncertainty has not been evaluated. We address this issue here by constructing estimators that are motivated from the asymptotic dependence structure of the process. We show that they are consistent and asymptotically normal, consistently estimate their asymptotic variances, and construct asymptotic confidence intervals. In addition, we evaluate their finite-sample performance in a simulation study and their practical performance on real data. The observation mechanism in the partially observed Galton–Watson process is inherently discrete. To allow for continuous-time dynamics, we incorporate partial observation in the linear birth and death process. In particular, we propose a model where the birth process is completely unobserved, while a random proportion of the death process is observed at discrete time points. We study the estimation in this model. Motivated by its counting process structure, we arrive at consistent and asymptotically normal estimators, consistently estimate their asymptotic variances, and construct asymptotic confidence intervals. We also evaluate the finite-sample and practical performance of the estimators in a simulation study and on real data.

EPFL2013

Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Stochastic Epidemics

Andrea Kraus

EPFL2013