Are you an EPFL student looking for a semester project?
Work with us on data science and visualisation projects, and deploy your project as an app on top of GraphSearch.
Concept
Attribution of recent climate change
Summary
Efforts to scientifically ascertain and attribute mechanisms responsible for recent global warming and related climate changes on Earth have found that the main driver is elevated levels of greenhouse gases produced by human activities, with natural forces adding variability. The likely range of human-induced surface-level air warming by 2010–2019 compared to levels in 1850–1900 is 0.8 °C to 1.3 °C, with a best estimate of 1.07 °C. This is close to the observed overall warming during that time of 0.9 °C to 1.2 °C, while temperature changes during that time were likely only ±0.1 °C due to natural forcings and ±0.2 °C due to variability in the climate.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2021, it is "unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land since pre-industrial times." Studies on attribution have focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record, particularly in the last 50 years. This is the period when human activity has grown fastest and observations of the atmosphere above the surface have become available.
Some of the main human activities that contribute to global warming are:
increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, for a warming effect
global changes to land surface, such as deforestation, for a warming effect
increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols, mainly for a cooling effect
In addition to human activities, some natural mechanisms can also cause climate change, including for example, climate oscillations, changes in solar activity, and volcanic activity.
Multiple lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities:
A physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established.
Historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual.
Computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included.
About this result
This page is automatically generated and may contain information that is not correct, complete, up-to-date, or relevant to your search query. The same applies to every other page on this website. Please make sure to verify the information with EPFL's official sources.
Related publications (253)
Related people (38)
Related concepts (17)
Climate change
In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global average temperature is more rapid than previous changes, and is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices increase greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide and methane.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. Its job is to advance scientific knowledge about climate change caused by human activities. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the IPCC in 1988. The United Nations endorsed the creation of the IPCC later that year. It has a secretariat in Geneva, Switzerland, hosted by the WMO. It has 195 member states who govern the IPCC.
Climate change mitigation
Climate change mitigation is action to limit climate change by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases or removing those gases from the atmosphere. The recent rise in global average temperature is mostly due to emissions from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Mitigation can reduce emissions by transitioning to sustainable energy sources, conserving energy, and increasing efficiency. It is possible to remove carbon dioxide () from the atmosphere by enlarging forests, restoring wetlands and using other natural and technical processes.
Related courses (21)
ENV-410: Science of climate change
The course equips students with a comprehensive scientific understanding of climate change covering a wide range of topics from physical principles, historical climate change, greenhouse gas emissions
HUM-201: Contemporary political issues A
Vivons-nous dans une "société du risque" ?
Pour répondre à cette question, nous reviendrons sur les différents processus sociaux (de l'essor des probabilités à celui du secteur de l'assurance, des pol
ENV-526: Climate and water sensitive urban design
This project-based course introduces students to the field of urban climate and hydrology, with a focus on nature-based solutions for the design of climate and water resilient cities.