In economics and econometrics, the parameter identification problem arises when the value of one or more parameters in an economic model cannot be determined from observable variables. It is closely related to non-identifiability in statistics and econometrics, which occurs when a statistical model has more than one set of parameters that generate the same distribution of observations, meaning that multiple parameterizations are observationally equivalent.
For example, this problem can occur in the estimation of multiple-equation econometric models where the equations have variables in common.
Consider a linear model for the supply and demand of some specific good. The quantity demanded varies negatively with the price: a higher price decreases the quantity demanded. The quantity supplied varies directly with the price: a higher price increases the quantity supplied.
Assume that, say for several years, we have data on both the price and the traded quantity of this good. Unfortunately this is not enough to identify the two equations (demand and supply) using regression analysis on observations of Q and P: one cannot estimate a downward slope and an upward slope with one linear regression line involving only two variables. Additional variables can make it possible to identify the individual relations.
In the graph shown here, the supply curve (red line, upward sloping) shows the quantity supplied depending positively on the price, while the demand curve (black lines, downward sloping) shows quantity depending negatively on the price and also on some additional variable Z, which affects the location of the demand curve in quantity-price space. This Z might be consumers' income, with a rise in income shifting the demand curve outwards. This is symbolically indicated with the values 1, 2 and 3 for Z.
With the quantities supplied and demanded being equal, the observations on quantity and price are the three white points in the graph: they reveal the supply curve. Hence the effect of Z on demand makes it possible to identify the (positive) slope of the supply equation.
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Explores signals and systems, mathematical description, stability, types of systems, input signals, vector and signal analogy, matrix and linear system analogy, and canonical basis.
In statistics, identifiability is a property which a model must satisfy for precise inference to be possible. A model is identifiable if it is theoretically possible to learn the true values of this model's underlying parameters after obtaining an infinite number of observations from it. Mathematically, this is equivalent to saying that different values of the parameters must generate different probability distributions of the observable variables.
Simultaneous equations models are a type of statistical model in which the dependent variables are functions of other dependent variables, rather than just independent variables. This means some of the explanatory variables are jointly determined with the dependent variable, which in economics usually is the consequence of some underlying equilibrium mechanism. Take the typical supply and demand model: whilst typically one would determine the quantity supplied and demanded to be a function of the price set by the market, it is also possible for the reverse to be true, where producers observe the quantity that consumers demand and then set the price.
Econometrics is an application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships. More precisely, it is "the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference". An introductory economics textbook describes econometrics as allowing economists "to sift through mountains of data to extract simple relationships". Jan Tinbergen is one of the two founding fathers of econometrics.
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