Atmospheric dispersion modeling

Atmospheric dispersion modeling is the mathematical simulation of how air pollutants disperse in the ambient atmosphere. It is performed with computer programs that include algorithms to solve the mathematical equations that govern the pollutant dispersion. The dispersion models are used to estimate the downwind ambient concentration of air pollutants or toxins emitted from sources such as industrial plants, vehicular traffic or accidental chemical releases. They can also be used to predict future concentrations under specific scenarios (i.e. changes in emission sources). Therefore, they are the dominant type of model used in air quality policy making. They are most useful for pollutants that are dispersed over large distances and that may react in the atmosphere. For pollutants that have a very high spatio-temporal variability (i.e. have very steep distance to source decay such as black carbon) and for epidemiological studies statistical land-use regression models are also used. Disp

Improving the Turbulence Coupling between High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models

Balazs Szintai

For the modelling of the transport and diffusion of atmospheric pollutants during accidental releases, sophisticated emergency response systems are used. These modelling systems usually consist of three main parts. The atmospheric flow conditions can be simulated with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The evolution of the pollutant cloud is described with a dispersion model of variable complexity. The NWP and the dispersion models have to be coupled with a so-called meteorological pre-processor. This means that all the necessary – in most cases turbulence related – variables which are not available from the standard output of the NWP model have to be diagnosed. The main difficulty of the turbulence coupling is that these subgrid scale variables of NWP models are not routinely verified and thus little is known concerning their quality and impact on dispersion processes. The general aim of the present work is to better understand and improve this coupling mechanism. For this purpose all the three main components of the emergency response system of MeteoSwiss are carefully evaluated and possible improvement strategies are suggested. In the first part, the NWP component of the system, namely the COSMO model, is investigated focusing on the model performance in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). Three case studies, representing both unstable and stable situations, are analyzed and the COSMO simulations are validated with turbulence measurements and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) data. It is shown that the COSMO model is able to reproduce the main evolution of the boundary layer in dry convective situations with the operational parameter setting. However, it is found that the COSMO model tends to simulate a too moist and too cold PBL with shallower PBL heights than observed. During stable conditions the operational parameter setting has to be significantly modified (e.g., the minimum diffusion coefficient) to obtain a good model performance. The turbulence scheme of COSMO, which carries a prognostic equation for Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE), is studied in detail to understand the shortcomings of the simulations. The turbulent transport term (third order moment) in the TKE equation is found to be significantly underestimated by the COSMO model during unstable situations. This results in inaccurate TKE profiles and hence missing entrainment fluxes at the top of the PBL. A solution to increase the TKE transport in the PBL is proposed in the present work and evaluated during a three-month continuous period. While improving the TKE profile substantially, the modification is demonstrated to not impair other model output characteristics. The second component of the emergency response system, namely the meteorological pre-processor, is also validated on case studies and a continuous period. The main objective of this analysis is to compare the currently operational coupling approach, which is based on the direct usage of the prognostic TKE from the COSMO model, to a classical approach based on similarity theory considerations, thereby using turbulence measurements on the one hand and LES data on the other hand. To be able to use similarity theory approaches for the determination of turbulence characteristics, the PBL height has first to be diagnosed from the NWP model. In the present study, several approaches for the determination of PBL height have been implemented and validated with radio sounding measurements. Based on the verification results and the operational convenience, the method based on the bulk Richardson number method has been chosen for the diagnosis of the PBL height. Validation results of post-diagnosed turbulence characteristics show that during convective situations, the similarity approach tends to overestimate the turbulence intensity, while the approach based on the direct usage of TKE yields more accurate results. For stable conditions the different approaches are closer to each other and both give reasonable predictions. It is found that the main drawback of the direct approach is the isotropic assumption in the horizontal direction. A new hybrid method is proposed which uses similarity considerations for the partitioning of horizontal TKE between along-wind and cross-wind directions. In the last part, pollutant dispersion in complex terrain is studied using a new scaling approach for TKE that is suited for steep and narrow Alpine valleys. This scaling approach is introduced in the interface between COSMO and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM), and its results are compared to those of a classical similarity theory approach and to the operational coupling type, which uses the TKE from the COSMO model directly. For the validation of the modelling system, the TRANSALP-89 tracer experiment is used, which was conducted in highly complex terrain in southern Switzerland. The ability of the COSMO model to simulate the valley-wind system is assessed with several meteorological surface stations. The dispersion simulation is evaluated with the measurements from 25 surface samplers. The sensitivity of the modelling system towards the soil moisture, horizontal grid resolution, and boundary layer height determination is investigated. It is shown that if the flow field is correctly reproduced, the new scaling approach improves the tracer concentration simulation compared to the classical coupling methods.

EPFL2010

Development of the Jungfraujoch UV DIAL Lidar to Observe the Vertical Ozone Distribution in the Context of Stratosphere Troposphere Exchange and Long Range Transport

Marcel Bartlome

Tropospheric ozone is a climate relevant greenhouse gas, as well as an atmospheric pollutant. Its abundance in the troposphere is mainly governed by the influx of stratospheric air masses and the photochemical production due to anthropogenic and biogenic ozone precursors. Precise model simulations and measurements are needed to assess the exact impact of these sources onto the total tropospheric ozone content. In the latter case, vertical tropospheric ozone profiles are commonly obtained from in-situ balloon-borne soundings. These routine observations are performed with a maximum frequency of several measurements per week. Therefore, they are not suited to resolve the rather fast changes in the tropospheric ozone concentration. However, accurate vertical ozone profiles with temporal and spatial resolutions suitable for studying those changes have been produced for decades using remote sensing by means of the ozone UV differential absorption lidar (DIAL) technique. The main goals of this thesis aimed to address some of the unresolved problems of the ozone origin and evolution in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and were: to develop an UV DIAL for the observation of the vertical ozone distribution in the free troposphere and at the tropopause region. to perform experimental measurements of vertical ozone profiles in the free troposphere and the tropopause in order to assess the ability of the ozone UV DIAL to observe fast variations in vertical ozone distribution caused by stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE), long range transport, and advection from the boundary layer. to assess the feasibility of systematic ozone profile retrieval by the ozone UV DIAL technique from the High Altitude Research Station Jungfraujoch (HARSJ, 3580 m ASL, 7°59'2''E, 46°32'53''N). The HARSJ was chosen for the experiment because of its location, which allows ozone UV DIAL measurements of the tropopause region without perturbation of the lower troposphere. Furthermore, previous atmospheric studies have shown that because of the station's location, the upper tropospheric data taken at the HARSJ can be regarded as representative for central and western Europe. During the first two and a half years of the thesis project the ozone UV DIAL was designed and built. The ozone UV DIAL transmitter is based on a commercial, fourth harmonic Nd:YAG laser. The on- (284 nm) and off- (304 nm) ozone UV DIAL wavelengths are produced by stimulated Raman scattering in high-pressure nitrogen. The receiver uses the existing astronomical Cassegrain telescope (76 cm in diameter) at the HARSJ. Spectral separation of the backscattered ozone UV DIAL wavelengths is carried out by a polychromator based on an concave imaging diffraction grating. The entire ozone UV DIAL detection unit is integrated into the existing long-range multi-wavelength polychromator box optically coupled at the Cassegrain telescope's rear end. With the current design, the ozone UV DIAL system provides hourly averaged ozone profiles reaching from 6 km to 12 km ASL with a vertical resolution better than 400 m at 6 km ASL and 1000 m at 12 km ASL. The relative statistical error of the profiles is 10% at 12 km ASL. The experimental measurements started in the spring of 2008 but were interrupted several times because of serious laser failures. As a first step of the experiment, the ozone UV DIAL profiles were compared to balloon borne ozone profiles taken by electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) sondes. The sondes were launched by the Swiss Meteorological Institute – Payerne (SMI, 46°49'N, 6°56'E, 491 m ASL) situated 80 km in northwestern direction of the HARSJ. The ozone UV DIAL and the sonde measurements were taken quasi simultaneously. The relative differences between the ozone UV DIAL and the sonde profiles were found to be below ±25% in a horizontally homogeneous atmosphere. The intercomparison has shown that the ozone UV DIAL is capable to accurately reproduce the vertical ozone distribution. Intercomparison with vertical ozone profiles taken in the vicinity of the HARSJ by an airplane-borne UV-photometer confirmed the performance of the ozone UV DIAL. Time series with duration of up to 21 hours were taken in order to study the time evolution of tropospheric events characterized by elevated ozone concentrations. As a result of these measurements three events, demonstrating different processes have been identified. In the first case an air layer with elevated ozone concentration was observed in the altitude range between 6 and 7 km ASL. The lower than 10% relative humidity and the time evolution of this layer allowed to determine its stratospheric origin. The observations are in a good agreement with the EURopean Air Pollution Dispersion (EURAD) model. The model predictions also agree with the elevated ozone concentration measured by the UV-photometer of the National Air Pollution Monitoring Network (NABEL) operated at the HARSJ. The evolution of an ozone-enriched layer in the tropopause region was followed for 21 hours during the second case study. The time evolution, the ECC data, and the EURAD model predictions suggest the possibility of a short filamentation process developing at the tropopause region. The measurements of the third event were made according to a prediction of STE forecasted by a dynamical model developed at the ETHZ. A short living enhancement of the ozone concentration has been observed at an altitude of about 9.5 km ASL. There are two possible explanations for this event. The first one could be a short living reversible STE event. A second explanation is a possible long-range transport of ozone and ozone precursor rich air from the forest fires in the Athens region suggested by the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) backward trajectories. However, the available information does not allow to make a definite conclusion. The ozone UV DIAL has been built successfully and has shown its ability to observe fast variation in vertical ozone distribution with high accuracy and precision. In combination with additional water vapor and temperature lidar observations and supported by model forecasting, this system could become a powerful tool for the improving of the understanding of upper troposphere and lower stratosphere ozone related processes. However, to allow future systematic observations the ozone UV DIAL will need an essential upgrade to resolve the problems related to the long preparation time, and the limited by technical reasons time of observation.

EPFL2010

Improvement of an urban turbulence parametrization for meteorological operational forecast and air quality modeling

Clive Muller

During the last century, urban pollution has increased with the growth of cities. Urban air quality has become a high priority as it is directly linked to concerns such as human exposure and health. The present work is dedicated to urban air quality modeling with focus on urban meteorology. The main goal is to improve meteorological and air quality simulations in urban areas. Based on measurements and numerical air quality simulations, Chapter 3 describes the meteorological situation and tests an emission inventory for an ozone pollution episode in Mexico City (2 March 1997), in order to determine the principal factors to be accounted in an air quality study. The Mexico City case shows the great influence of meteorological conditions and pollutant emissions on air quality. A thorough understanding of the phenomena governing the meteorological conditions, like small scale convergence, and an accurate emission inventory validated by VOC measurements in the city, are sensitive elements in an air quality study. In Chapter 4, the presence of an Urban Heat Island (UHI) is underlined over the city of Basel (Switzerland) with the BUBBLE measurements. Further on, the ability of aLMo (the operational weather prediction model of MeteoSwiss) to reproduce the effect of a city on the boundary layer atmospheric flow fields is investigated. Results show that aLMo is not able to reproduce the UHI and hence that its surface scheme based on the Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST) is not adapted for the urban areas. Therefore, the Buildings Effects Parametrization (BEP) which has been developed by Martilli et al.(2002) especially for urban areas, is implemented in aLMo. Results show that alMo is now able to reproduce the main behavior of the urban boundary layer as the UHI and BEP has hence a real enhancement potential for aLMo. Chapter 5 shows the sensitivity of aLMo with respect to its vertical resolution. In order to limit the sensitivity of aLMo to the grid resolution, BEP is modified. The mesoscale model furnishes the upper boundary conditions for the inner calculation of BEP. That is, BEP recalculates independently the vertical profiles of wind, temperature and energy based on the surface fluxes of momentum, heat and turbulent kinetic energy. The results obtained show a decrease in the sensitivity to the resolution and a better agreement with the measurements. Furthermore, the modified version of BEP gives additional meteorological fields (temperature, wind and TKE) in the urban canopy. The computed temperature in the urban canopy shows a good agreement with measurements in a Basel street canyon. This work shows that it is not necessary to have a high resolution for taking into account modification of the atmospheric flow fields induced by a city.

EPFL2007

Improving the Turbulence Coupling between High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models

Balazs Szintai

EPFL2010

Development of the Jungfraujoch UV DIAL Lidar to Observe the Vertical Ozone Distribution in the Context of Stratosphere Troposphere Exchange and Long Range Transport

Marcel Bartlome

EPFL2010

Improvement of an urban turbulence parametrization for meteorological operational forecast and air quality modeling

Clive Muller

EPFL2007