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Concept
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
Summary
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), also known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), is the theorized variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic Ocean on the timescale of several decades.
While there is some support for this mode in models and in historical observations, controversy exists with regard to its amplitude, and whether it has a typical timescale and can be classified as an oscillation. There is also discussion on the attribution of sea surface temperature change to natural or anthropogenic causes, especially in tropical Atlantic areas important for hurricane development. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is also connected with shifts in hurricane activity, rainfall patterns and intensity, and changes in fish populations.
Evidence for a multidecadal climate oscillation centered in the North Atlantic began to emerge in 1980s work by Folland and colleagues, seen in Fig. 2.d.A. That oscillation was the sole focus of Schlesinger and Ramankutty in 1994, but the actual term Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was coined by Michael Mann in a 2000 telephone interview with Richard Kerr, as recounted by Mann, p. 30 in The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines (2012).
The AMO signal is usually defined from the patterns of SST variability in the North Atlantic once any linear trend has been removed. This detrending is intended to remove the influence of greenhouse gas-induced global warming from the analysis. However, if the global warming signal is significantly non-linear in time (i.e. not just a smooth linear increase), variations in the forced signal will leak into the AMO definition. Consequently, correlations with the AMO index may mask effects of global warming, as per Mann, Steinman and Miller, which also provides a more detailed history of the science development.
Several methods have been proposed to remove the global trend and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence over the North Atlantic SST.
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