Rare Events and Extreme Modeling

This lecture introduces the topic of extremes and rare event modeling, focusing on the mathematical modeling and statistical learning from rare events. The instructor discusses real-life examples such as the Fukushima incident and the heavy rainfall in Venezuela, highlighting the challenges in estimating the probabilities of rare events with limited data. The lecture also covers the application of extreme value theory in various fields like finance, environmental engineering, and seismology, emphasizing the importance of accurate inference on tail distributions and the need for rational extrapolation methods. Additionally, the history and development of extreme value theory are briefly discussed, along with the course outline and assessment details.