Uncertain Reasoning: Bayesian Networks

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This lecture covers uncertain reasoning, Bayesian networks, and stochastic resolution. It discusses the limitations of logic due to insufficient information, the representation of uncertainty through plausibility, and the use of Bayesian reasoning for updating plausibility. The lecture also explores formalisms for uncertainty, such as fuzzy logic and probabilistic reasoning, and provides examples like a burglar alarm system. It delves into the challenges of modeling context influence and avoiding inadmissible chains of reasoning. The significance of probabilistic logic and the interpretation of probabilities are also explained, along with the concept of abduction for causal and probabilistic reasoning.

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https://mediaspace.epfl.ch/media/0_qubjykdt

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Abductive reasoning (also called abduction, abductive inference, or retroduction) is a form of logical inference that seeks the simplest and most likely conclusion from a set of observations. It was formulated and advanced by American philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce beginning in the last third of the 19th century. Abductive reasoning, unlike deductive reasoning, yields a plausible conclusion but does not definitively verify it. Abductive conclusions do not eliminate uncertainty or doubt, which is expressed in retreat terms such as "best available" or "most likely".

A probabilistic logic network (PLN) is a conceptual, mathematical and computational approach to uncertain inference; inspired by logic programming, but using probabilities in place of crisp (true/false) truth values, and fractional uncertainty in place of crisp known/unknown values. In order to carry out effective reasoning in real-world circumstances, artificial intelligence software must robustly handle uncertainty.

Probabilistic logic (also probability logic and probabilistic reasoning) involves the use of probability and logic to deal with uncertain situations. Probabilistic logic extends traditional logic truth tables with probabilistic expressions. A difficulty of probabilistic logics is their tendency to multiply the computational complexities of their probabilistic and logical components. Other difficulties include the possibility of counter-intuitive results, such as in case of belief fusion in Dempster–Shafer theory.

In information technology a reasoning system is a software system that generates conclusions from available knowledge using logical techniques such as deduction and induction. Reasoning systems play an important role in the implementation of artificial intelligence and knowledge-based systems. By the everyday usage definition of the phrase, all computer systems are reasoning systems in that they all automate some type of logic or decision.

Inferences are steps in reasoning, moving from premises to logical consequences; etymologically, the word infer means to "carry forward". Inference is theoretically traditionally divided into deduction and induction, a distinction that in Europe dates at least to Aristotle (300s BCE). Deduction is inference deriving logical conclusions from premises known or assumed to be true, with the laws of valid inference being studied in logic. Induction is inference from particular evidence to a universal conclusion.