Short Rate Models: Vasiček and CIR

This lecture covers short rate models in interest rate modeling, starting with the Arbitrage Pricing Theorem and the bond pricing formula. It then delves into the Vasiček model, discussing its dynamics, Gaussian nature, and bond price calculations. The lecture also explores the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, affine bond prices, closed-form expressions for A(t) and B(t), and the proof of the claim for exponential affine bond prices. Additionally, it addresses fitting the initial term structure, time-inhomogeneous models, and calibrating the shift function. Finally, the Hull-White model is introduced as an extension of the Vasiček model.

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Interest Rate Models

This course gives you an easy introduction to interest rates and related contracts. These include the LIBOR, bonds, forward rate agreements, swaps, interest rate futures, caps, floors, and swaptions.

A short-rate model, in the context of interest rate derivatives, is a mathematical model that describes the future evolution of interest rates by describing the future evolution of the short rate, usually written . Under a short rate model, the stochastic state variable is taken to be the instantaneous spot rate. The short rate, , then, is the (continuously compounded, annualized) interest rate at which an entity can borrow money for an infinitesimally short period of time from time .

In finance, an interest rate derivative (IRD) is a derivative whose payments are determined through calculation techniques where the underlying benchmark product is an interest rate, or set of different interest rates. There are a multitude of different interest rate indices that can be used in this definition. IRDs are popular with all financial market participants given the need for almost any area of finance to either hedge or speculate on the movement of interest rates.

In finance, a bond is a type of security under which the issuer (debtor) owes the holder (creditor) a debt, and is obliged – depending on the terms – to provide cash flow to the creditor (e.g. repay the principal (i.e. amount borrowed) of the bond at the maturity date as well as interest (called the coupon) over a specified amount of time). The timing and the amount of cash flow provided varies, depending on the economic value that is emphasized upon, thus giving rise to different types of bonds.

An interest rate is the amount of interest due per period, as a proportion of the amount lent, deposited, or borrowed (called the principal sum). The total interest on an amount lent or borrowed depends on the principal sum, the interest rate, the compounding frequency, and the length of time over which it is lent, deposited, or borrowed. The annual interest rate is the rate over a period of one year. Other interest rates apply over different periods, such as a month or a day, but they are usually annualized.

In finance, a bond option is an option to buy or sell a bond at a certain price on or before the option expiry date. These instruments are typically traded OTC. A European bond option is an option to buy or sell a bond at a certain date in future for a predetermined price. An American bond option is an option to buy or sell a bond on or before a certain date in future for a predetermined price. Generally, one buys a call option on the bond if one believes that interest rates will fall, causing an increase in bond prices.