The El Nino-Southern Oscillation and wetland methane interannual variability

Global measurements of atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations continue to show large interannual variability whose origin is only partly understood. Here we quantify the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on wetland CH4 emissions, which are thought to be the dominant contributor to interannual variability of the CH4 sources. We use a simple wetland CH4 model that captures variability in wetland extent and soil carbon to model the spatial and temporal dynamics of wetland CH4 emissions from 1950-2005 and compare these results to an ENSO index. We are able to explain a large fraction of the global and tropical variability in wetland CH4 emissions through correlation with the ENSO index. We find that repeated El Nino events throughout the 1980s and 1990s were a contributing factor towards reducing CH4 emissions and stabilizing atmospheric CH4 concentrations. An increase in emissions from the boreal region would likely strengthen the feedback between ENSO and interannual variability in global wetland CH4 emissions. Our analysis emphasizes that climate variability has a significant impact on wetland CH4 emissions, which should be taken into account when considering future trends in CH4 sources. Citation: Hodson, E. L., B. Poulter, N. E. Zimmermann, C. Prigent, and J. O. Kaplan (2011), The El Nino-Southern Oscillation and wetland methane interannual variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L08810, doi:10.1029/2011GL046861.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Jed Oliver Kaplan

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by +/- 40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr(-1)). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 degrees C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9% globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5 degrees). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh2013

The role of methane and biogenic volatile organic compound sources in late glacial and Holocene fluctuations of atmospheric methane concentrations

Jed Oliver Kaplan

Recent analyses of ice core methane concentrations suggested that methane emissions from wetlands were the primary driver for prehistoric changes in atmospheric methane. However, these interpretations conflict as to the location of wetlands, magnitude of emissions, and the environmental controls on methane oxidation. The flux of other reactive trace gases to the atmosphere also controls apparent atmospheric methane concentrations because these compounds compete for the hydroxyl radical (OH), which is the primary atmospheric sink for methane. In a series of linked biosphere-atmosphere chemistry-climate modeling experiments, we simulate the methane and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from the terrestrial biosphere from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present. Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, we simulate the atmospheric concentrations of methane, OH, and other reactive trace gas species. Over the past 21,000 years, methane emissions from wetlands increased slightly to the end of the Pleistocene but then decreased again, reaching levels at the preindustrial Holocene that were similar to the LGM. Global wetland area decreased by 14% from LGM to the preindustrial time. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), however, nearly doubled over the same period of time. Atmospheric OH burdens and methane concentrations were affected by this major change in BVOC emissions, with methane lifetimes increasing by more than 2 years from LGM to the present. We simulate a change in methane concentration of ∼385 ppb, accounting for 88% of the ∼440 ppb increase in methane concentrations observed in ice cores. Thus glacial-interglacial changes in atmospheric methane concentrations would have been modulated by BVOC emissions. In addition, the increase in atmospheric methane concentrations since the mid-Holocene is partly caused in our results by the increases in anthropogenic methane emissions over this period. While the interplay between BVOC and wetland methane emissions since the LGM cannot explain the entire record of ice core methane concentrations, consideration of BVOC source dynamics is central to understanding ice core methane. Rapid changes in atmospheric methane concentrations, also observed in ice cores, require further study.

2006

Modeling study of the interannual variability in global tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane concentrations over the last two decades

Jérôme Drevet

Methane (CH4) is a major greenhouse gas whose global warming potential is 23 times more important than carbon dioxide (CO2). CH4 concentrations have steadily increased since the beginning of the industrial era, reaching an unprecedent level (almost 1800 ppb at present times). CH4 is currently considered as a one of the major driver of the climate change and its warming potential has leaded the Kyoto protocol to plan a significative reduction of its emissions. The objective of this thesis is to examine the factors that contribute to the CH4 global budget as well as its year-to-year variations. To that purpose, we have implemented a methane simulation in a global model of chemistry and transport. Conducting a CH4 simulation requires a comprehensive set of interannual varying CH4 emission inventories as well as a year-to-year varying 3-D fields of concentrations of hydroxyl radicals (OH) that is the main sink for CH4. The first part of this thesis examines the OH interannual variation, using results from a "full-chemistry" simulation that accounts for interannual variations in emissions of the main O3 precursors (including carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and hydrocarbons) as well as the year-to-year variation in meteorology (e.g. atmospheric water vapor content), lightning emissions, and overhead O3 column. We calculated a global OH concentration of 1.22×106 molec cm-3 averaged over the period. We find that global OH concentrations steadily increased during the early 90's by 8% and reached a maximum in 1997. Afterward, concentrations decrease by 5%. We find that changes in water vapor concentrations, anthropogenic emissions of CO and NOx, lightning NOx emissions, and overhead ozone column all play a role in driving the OH year-to-year variations. The relative contributions of these parameters depend on the latitudinal and altitudinal regions of the troposphere. We examine in particular the influence of the 1997-1998 ENSO on the global OH concentrations. We find that the 1997-1998 ENSO resulted in a large increase in OH in the tropical areas and in the extra-tropical areas of the northern hemisphere (largely driven by an increase in water vapor) while it leads to a decrease in OH in the extra-tropical region of the southern hemisphere (that results from changes in the transport pathways that bring CO in the most southern latitudes and deplete OH). Our results (in terms of OH variability) are in contradiction to those found by other methods, especially those using inverse modeling approaches that are based on methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) observations. This may results from poorly constrained sources. We then seek to implement a comprehensive set of CH4 emissions in our global model. We used anthropogenic CH4 emission data set of anthropogenic emissions from the International Institute of Technology (IIASA) whose emissions vary between 250 and 290 Tg/year between 1990 and 2000. We estimated biomass burning emissions, derived from an inventory of the total annual biomass burned area and emission factors that we constrained with measurements of the isotopic composition of atmospheric methane. This results in a global emissions rate of 60 Tg/year, which is much stronger than most of previous studies. We also developed a wetland scheme that accounts for soil carbon content, wetland fraction areas, soil temperature and humidity (with the three latter parameters varying interannually) and we evaluated the wetland areas with satellite-based estimates. Our global wetland emissions amount to about 150 Tg/year. We find a global CH4 lifetime of 10.6 years, which is in the range of values reported in previous studies. Comparing our results with different set of measurements gives promising results. The model reproduces well the year-to-year variation even if it slightly overestimates concentrations after 2000. By conducting different set of sensitivity simulations, we investigated the role of different parameters on the CH4 variations. We find that the long-term trend in CH4 is driven by a competition between anthropogenic emissions and tropospheric decay. Peaks of growth rate are driven by biomass burning emissions and to a lesser extend, wetland emissions. We find that even if we used increasing anthropogenic emissions during the 90s (that is in contradiction with some previous studies), reconstructing the observed year-to-year variation of CH4 concentrations was possible if one considers an increasing in OH during the 90s.

EPFL2008

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Jed Oliver Kaplan

Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh2013

Modeling study of the interannual variability in global tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane concentrations over the last two decades

Jérôme Drevet

EPFL2008

The role of methane and biogenic volatile organic compound sources in late glacial and Holocene fluctuations of atmospheric methane concentrations

Jed Oliver Kaplan

2006