Improving Alpine Flood Prediction through Hydrological Process Characterization and Uncertainty Analysis

Among the many challenges of Alpine flood prediction is describing complex, meteo-hydrological processes in a simplified, robust manner that can be easily integrated into operational forecasting. In this dissertation, improved methods to characterize these processes are developed and integrated into the hydrological modeling component of an operational flood forecasting system used in the Swiss Alps. Detailed studies are conducted to improve hydrological model inputs, processes and outputs. Improvements, detailed in four chapters of this thesis, address the overarching goal of this work – the reduction of flood forecasting uncertainty. The accuracy of flood predictions in Alpine areas is contingent upon adequate interpolation of meteorological forcings, which has significant impacts on discharge volumes and flood peaks. This thesis demonstrates an improvement in the interpolation of temperature and precipitation inputs using a robust variogram which considers anisotropy and using a geostatistical interpolation method to distribute inputs in space and time. Results show that using elevation as the external drift factor better describes orographically-induced precipitation and temperature gradients. Also, the consideration of anisotropy is integral in detailing spatial patterns of precipitation induced by storm advection. Hydrological flood forecasting in mountainous areas also requires accurate partitioning between rain and snowfall to properly estimate the extent of runoff contributing areas. Partitioning is improved in this work by using a new method to integrate Limited Area Model output. Unlike standard hydrological procedures in inferring snowfall limit estimates based on dry, ground temperature measurements, Limited Area Model output considers the vertical, humid, atmospheric structure in its snowfall limit calculations. In effect, this method provides good estimates of runoff contributing areas in the spring as evidenced by validation on discharge measurements and satellite images of snow coverage. Accurately describing snowmelt processes on a sub-daily scale is also of critical importance in Alpine flood forecasting. However, the complex topography of the study region has limited observations available for validation. This thesis presents the development of a new physically-based snowmelt method applicable to regions with limited data. This method uses only daily minimum and maximum temperatures to mimic the effects of radiation. A comparative analysis of snowmelt methods is validated with snow lysimeter data and with a unique, distributed meteorological dataset collected by a wireless weather station network. Results demonstrate that the new method is competitive with more complex snowmelt methods as shown by accurately reproducing diurnal snowmelt cycles. Conveying limits of certainty on flood prediction outputs to users is critical because of epistemic and aleatory errors inherent to environmental modeling. Due to the presence of these errors, the GLUE methodology and multi-criteria performance ideas have been adapted with a fit-for-purpose uncertainty estimation technique in the final part of this thesis. With this method, hydrological model parameters are constrained based on hydrograph behavior, with a particular focus on flood peak response. A key component of the technique is a visualization tool which shows acceptable ensembles of discharge with respect to individual and combined criteria. By integrating the aforementioned input and process improvements into the hydrological model, calibration achieves model outputs that capture observed river discharge. Also, the uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling output error is reduced. Findings of this thesis are applicable to operational flood forecasting in general and have proven utility in improving hydrological model predictions in mountainous regions. Due to the novelty of the developments in terms of new methods or the use of tools and data sources previously unexploited in flood forecasting, further testing of the improvements is recommended. Future research in quantifying the chain of uncertainty produced by combining probabilistic forecast inputs with the hydrological output ensembles is also critical when the improved flood forecasting model becomes fully operational.

The Uncertainty of Seasonal Snow Energy- and Mass Balance Simulations as a Function of Typical Input Uncertainty

Mathias Thierry Pierre Bavay, Charles Fierz, Michael Lehning

The assessment of water resources and their change in time as well as many other applications from hydrology to meteorology require the successful modelling of the dynamics of the seasonal snow cover. Especially if extrapolation in time, e.g. for climate change scenario assessment, is aimed for, the use of energy balance models has been proven to be more trustworthy than simpler temperature index models. The disadvantage of the energy balance method is the requirement of a variety of input quantities, which are not always but become increasingly accessible. What is missing, however, is an in-depth assessment of the influence of typical errors in the individual input quantities on model performance. This contribution presents a sensitivity study, which compares the influence of typical errors and uncertainties in radiation, wind, temperature and humidity input, both measured and modeled, with errors caused by insufficient knowledge of solid precipitation rates. The analysis is carried out with the widely used SNOWPACK model and focuses on the build-up and melt of a mid-latitude seasonal snow cover. While mass input uncertainties still dominate the overall performance especially at high elevations (alpine zone), errors in wind and radiation can cause very significant effects as well. Wind is considered to be more critical in this context, because its spatial variation is both more pronounced and more difficult to estimate than the spatial variation in short- and longwave radiation. In absence of reliable radiation input, its value can successfully be calculated or parameterized if e.g. cloud information is available. Errors in air temperature input or a failure of a correct assessment of its spatial variability can be locally very important because of the feed-back mechanism via atmospheric stability. For the overall mass balance of a seasonal snow cover, humidity errors are less important. Notable exceptions are applications such as the correct assessment of surface hoar formation or prediction of melt rates during rain on snow events, for which good humidity input is required. A main conclusion is that input data through a combination of measurement stations and weather models are now widely available with sufficient quality to even allow a small-scale distributed application of energy balance models.

2013

Improved interpolation of meteorological forcings and hydrologic implications for a Swiss alpine region

Alexis Berne, Ludovico Nicotina, Marc Parlange, Andrea Rinaldo, Cara Christine Tobin

This paper presents a comparative study on the mapping of temperature and precipitation fields in complex Alpine terrain. Its relevance hinges on the major impact that inadequate interpolations of meteorological forcings bear on the accuracy of hydrologic predictions regardless of the specifics of the models, particularly during flood events. Three flood events measured in the Swiss Alps are analyzed in detail to determine the interpolation methods which best capture the distribution of intense, orographically-induced precipitation. The interpolation techniques comparatively examined include: Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Ordinary Kriging (OK), and Kriging with External Drift (KED). Geostatistical methods rely on a robust anisotropic variogram for the definition of the spatial rainfall structure. Results indicate that IDW tends to significantly underestimate rainfall volumes whereas OK and KED methods capture spatial patterns and rainfall volumes induced by storm advection. Using numerical weather forecasts and elevation data as covariates for precipitation, we provide evidence for KED to outperform the other methods. Most significantly, the use of elevation as auxiliary information in KED of temperatures demonstrates minimal errors in estimated instantaneous rainfall volumes and provides instantaneous lapse rates which better capture snow/rainfall partitioning. Incorporation of the temperature and precipitation input fields into a hydrological model used for operational management was found to provide vastly improved outputs with respect to measured discharge volumes and flood peaks, with notable implications for flood modeling.

2011

Distributed snow and rock temperature modelling in steep rock walls using Alpine3D

Mathias Thierry Pierre Bavay, Michael Lehning, Nander Wever

In this study we modelled the influence of the spatially and temporally heterogeneous snow cover on the surface energy balance and thus on rock temperatures in two rugged, steep rock walls on the Gemsstock ridge in the central Swiss Alps. The heterogeneous snow depth distribution in the rock walls was introduced to the distributed, process-based energy balance model Alpine3D with a precipitation scaling method based on snow depth data measured by terrestrial laser scanning. The influence of the snow cover on rock temperatures was investigated by comparing a snow-covered model scenario (precipitation input provided by precipitation scaling) with a snow-free (zero precipitation input) one. Model uncertainties are discussed and evaluated at both the point and spatial scales against 22 near-surface rock temperature measurements and high-resolution snow depth data from winter terrestrial laser scans. In the rough rock walls, the heterogeneously distributed snow cover was moderately well reproduced by Alpine3D with mean absolute errors ranging between 0.31 and 0.81 m. However, snow cover duration was reproduced well and, consequently, near-surface rock temperatures were modelled convincingly. Uncertainties in rock temperature modelling were found to be around 1.6 degrees C. Errors in snow cover modelling and hence in rock temperature simulations are explained by inadequate snow settlement due to linear precipitation scaling, missing lateral heat fluxes in the rock, and by errors caused by interpolation of shortwave radiation, wind and air temperature into the rock walls. Mean annual near-surface rock temperature increases were both measured and modelled in the steep rock walls as a consequence of a thick, long-lasting snow cover. Rock temperatures were 1.3-2.5 degrees C higher in the shaded and sunny rock walls, while comparing snow-covered to snow-free simulations. This helps to assess the potential error made in ground temperature modelling when neglecting snow in steep bedrock.