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Railway demand forecasting in revenue management using neural networks

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Residual neural network

A Residual Neural Network (a.k.a. Residual Network, ResNet) is a deep learning model in which the weight layers learn residual functions with reference to the layer inputs. A Residual Network is a network with skip connections that perform identity mappings, merged with the layer outputs by addition. It behaves like a Highway Network whose gates are opened through strongly positive bias weights. This enables deep learning models with tens or hundreds of layers to train easily and approach better accuracy when going deeper.

Neural network

A neural network can refer to a neural circuit of biological neurons (sometimes also called a biological neural network), a network of artificial neurons or nodes in the case of an artificial neural network. Artificial neural networks are used for solving artificial intelligence (AI) problems; they model connections of biological neurons as weights between nodes. A positive weight reflects an excitatory connection, while negative values mean inhibitory connections. All inputs are modified by a weight and summed.

Artificial neural network

Artificial neural networks (ANNs, also shortened to neural networks (NNs) or neural nets) are a branch of machine learning models that are built using principles of neuronal organization discovered by connectionism in the biological neural networks constituting animal brains. An ANN is based on a collection of connected units or nodes called artificial neurons, which loosely model the neurons in a biological brain. Each connection, like the synapses in a biological brain, can transmit a signal to other neurons.

Time delay neural network

Time delay neural network (TDNN) is a multilayer artificial neural network architecture whose purpose is to 1) classify patterns with shift-invariance, and 2) model context at each layer of the network. Shift-invariant classification means that the classifier does not require explicit segmentation prior to classification. For the classification of a temporal pattern (such as speech), the TDNN thus avoids having to determine the beginning and end points of sounds before classifying them.

Deep learning

Deep learning is part of a broader family of machine learning methods, which is based on artificial neural networks with representation learning. The adjective "deep" in deep learning refers to the use of multiple layers in the network. Methods used can be either supervised, semi-supervised or unsupervised.

Robust regression

In robust statistics, robust regression seeks to overcome some limitations of traditional regression analysis. A regression analysis models the relationship between one or more independent variables and a dependent variable. Standard types of regression, such as ordinary least squares, have favourable properties if their underlying assumptions are true, but can give misleading results otherwise (i.e. are not robust to assumption violations).

Multinomial logistic regression

In statistics, multinomial logistic regression is a classification method that generalizes logistic regression to multiclass problems, i.e. with more than two possible discrete outcomes. That is, it is a model that is used to predict the probabilities of the different possible outcomes of a categorically distributed dependent variable, given a set of independent variables (which may be real-valued, binary-valued, categorical-valued, etc.).

Ensemble forecasting

Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced. This set of forecasts aims to give an indication of the range of possible future states of the atmosphere. Ensemble forecasting is a form of Monte Carlo analysis.

Backpropagation

As a machine-learning algorithm, backpropagation performs a backward pass to adjust the model's parameters, aiming to minimize the mean squared error (MSE). In a single-layered network, backpropagation uses the following steps: Traverse through the network from the input to the output by computing the hidden layers' output and the output layer. (the feedforward step) In the output layer, calculate the derivative of the cost function with respect to the input and the hidden layers.

Technology forecasting

Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits.