Effects of climate change on deep-water oxygen and winter mixing in a deep lake (Lake Geneva)

Oxygen is the most important dissolved gas for lake ecosystems. Because low oxygen concentrations are an ongoing problem in many parts of the oceans and numerous lakes, oxygen depletion processes have been intensively studied over the last decades and were mainly attributed to high nutrient loads. Recently, climate-induced changes in stratification and mixing behavior were recognized as additional thread to hypolimnetic oxygen budgets in lakes and reservoirs [Matzinger et al., 2007; Zhang et al., 2015]. Observational data of Lake Geneva, a deep perialpine lake situated between France and Switzerland showed no decreasing trend in hypoxia over the last 43 years, despite an impressive reduction in nutrient input during this period. Instead, hypoxic conditions were predominantly controlled by deep mixing end of winter and in turn by winter temperatures. To test the sensitivity of Lake Geneva on future climate change and changes in water transparency, we simulated the hydrodynamics and temperature of Lake Geneva under varying conditions for atmospheric temperature and water clarity performed with the one-dimensional model SIMSTRAT [Goudsmit, 2002]. The results show, that the stratification in lakes is only weakly affected by changes in light absorption due to varying water quality. For conditions expected for the end of the century, a decrease in the annual mean deep convective mixing of up to 45 m is predicted. Also complete mixing events over the whole lake are less likely to occur. A change in the hypolimnetic oxygen concentration of up to 20% can thus be expected in the future. These results show, that changes in deep mixing have an equally strong impact as eutrophication on the deep-water oxygen development of oligomictic lakes and have to be considered in the prediction of the future development of lakes.

Evolution of stream and lake water temperature under climate change

Damien Bouffard, Wolf Hendrik Huwald, Adrien Michel, Carl Love Mikael Råman Vinnå, Bettina Schaefli, Martin Schmid, Alfred Johny Wüest

This report presents past observations and projects the future development of water temperature in Swiss lakes and rivers. Projections are made until the end of the 21st century using the CH2018 climate scenarios. Besides climate change effects on temperature, we also discuss effects on discharge for rivers, and effects on the thermal structure, and specifically the seasonal mixing regime and ice cover of lakes. Observations over the past 40 years show a clear increase in river temperatures, with a mean trend of 0.33 ± 0.03 °C per decade, corresponding to ~80% of the observed air temperature trend. This warming has been continuous over the last four decades and impacts the health of stream ecosystems (e.g. by favouring the spread of fish diseases) and their services (e.g., the water usage for industrial cooling). The temperature rise is more pronounced in the Swiss Plateau than in the Alps, where snow and glacier melt partially mitigates (for now) the effects of increasing air temperature. Conversely, annual average discharge shows no significant trend. Similar trends have also been reported for Swiss lakes with mean summer lake surface temperature increasing by 0.40 ± 0.08 °C per decade since the 1950s. This warming trend affects lake stratification. Warm periods may for instance increase the occurrence of deep-water anoxic conditions, as observed during the 2003 heat wave in Lake Zurich. In mild winters, ice cover duration is reduced in alpine lakes, and winter deep mixing is less intense in large-peri-alpine lakes. The mild winter 2006/7 limited, for instance, the seasonal mixing of Lake Constance to about 60 m depths. Effects of warming on lake thermal structure vary within and between regions, due to both lake and watershed characteristics as well as regional climate change patterns. We simulated the future evolution of stream temperature for 10 catchments in Switzerland for a historical reference period (1990–2000) and two future periods: 2055–2065 (mid-century) and 2080–2090 (end of the century). Results show that the temperature will stabilize by the end of the century for the RCP2.6 scenario (strong CO2 emission reduction), whereas the warming will accelerate with time for the RCP8.5 scenario (business as usual scenario). This expected warming will have significant impacts on the stream ecosystems. Alpine and lowland catchments will experience a similar annual mean temperature increase but display different seasonal effects. While Swiss Plateau rivers will become warmer both in winter and summer (but more in summer), alpine rivers will experience almost no warming in winter but a strong warming exceeding that of air temperature in summer. This is explained by an abrupt decrease in discharge, and by the soil warming resulting from the absence of snow and thus a lower albedo. Lake temperature projections are based on one-dimensional, vertically resolved, hydrodynamic simulations for 29 lakes. The simulated lakes cover a wide range of sizes, depths and water quality, and an altitude range from 200 to 1800 m a.s.l. Simulations indicate substantial changes in lake thermal structure for RCP8.5 with surface temperatures increasing on average by 3.3 °C at the end of the 21st century. This increase is limited to 0.9 °C in the mitigation scenario RCP2.6. We identified an altitude-dependent evolution of the durations of summer and winter stratification as well the ice-covered period. Larger changes in stratification duration are expected to occur at higher altitude lakes. Yet, these lakes will still maintain winter stratification and a shortened icecovered period while lower altitude lakes (below ~1500 m a.s.l.) risk drastic changes in the mixing regime. e.g., a complete loss of the ice cover and winter stratification under the RCP8.5 scenarios. Such changes in the mixing regime may strongly impact lake ecosystems. These low to mid altitude lakes may therefore be considered as the most vulnerable to climate change.

2021

Oxygen depletion in stratified lakes - why shallow and deep lakes react differently

Robert Vincent Schwefel, Alfred Johny Wüest

Oxygen is the most important element in natural waters for any higher aquatic life, such as fish. As with humans, almost all members of aquatic ecosystems need oxygen to breathe. Building on this, treatment of drinking water is easier for oxic than for anoxic water. Critical for hypoxic conditions in lakes are the deep waters during stagnation periods, typically during summer or warm/wet periods, when the water columns are density stratified. Then, the oxygen supply to the deep water is restrained and the decomposition of organic matter leads to oxygen depletion in the stratified deep layers. Especially in shallow lakes, the resulting oxygen removal can be drastic. In this presentation, we show how oxygen depletion mechanisms in lakes take place and how depletion is related to key processes such as primary productivity (via nutrient loading), molecular diffusion of oxygen into the sediment, molecular diffusion of reduced substances out of the sediment and, finally, the deep convective mixing in winter which refills the oxygen reservoirs of the deep layers. Here, we will clarify how these different processes affect the oxygen budget: primary production drives oxygen depletion directly, whereas lake morphology and external wind forcing influence the rate of depletion. Finally, climate change can affect the replenishment of oxygen in the deep water and thereby change the oxygen budget. The examples shown in this presentation will be set into the context of the water quality in Switzerland, which has gone through a rigorous improvement in the last 40 years.

2016

Evolution of stream and lake water temperature under climate change

Damien Bouffard, Wolf Hendrik Huwald, Adrien Michel, Carl Love Mikael Råman Vinnå, Bettina Schaefli, Martin Schmid, Alfred Johny Wüest

2021