Publication

A Comprehensive Assessment of the Short-Term Uncertainty of Grid-Connected PV Systems

Abstract

One of the key aspects enabling the bulk integration of photovoltaic (PV) resources into the power grid is the short-term prediction of the maximum available power (from 100 ms to 5 minutes), and the quantification of the associated uncertainties. This is beneficial for the definition of robust control strategies able to account for the stochastic nature of this energy resource. We propose and validate a comprehensive method to assess the overall PV power uncertainties, even at operating conditions different from the maximum power point (MPP), i.e., to consider when power curtailment strategies are adopted on a controllable PV plant. The proposed gray-box modeling includes physical and data-driven sub-models that rely on measurements of the PV currents, voltages, and the module temperature, information normally available to the PV plant operator. Furthermore, we identify which sub-model is the most critical in terms of uncertainty, for different forecast horizons. Experimental results analyze the ability of the method to guarantee the target coverage probability while accounting for the uncertain nature of the PV resource. We show how modelling and forecasting information can be used to express the PV plant behaviour to a grid controller responsible for the safe operation of a microgrid.

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Related concepts (32)
Photovoltaic system
A photovoltaic system, also PV system or solar power system, is an electric power system designed to supply usable solar power by means of photovoltaics. It consists of an arrangement of several components, including solar panels to absorb and convert sunlight into electricity, a solar inverter to convert the output from direct to alternating current, as well as mounting, cabling, and other electrical accessories to set up a working system. It may also use a solar tracking system to improve the system's overall performance and include an integrated battery.
Photovoltaic system performance
Photovoltaic system performance is a function of the climatic conditions, the equipment used and the system configuration. PV performance can be measured as the ratio of actual solar PV system output vs expected values, the measurement being essential for proper solar PV facility's operation and maintenance. The primary energy input is the global light irradiance in the plane of the solar arrays, and this in turn is a combination of the direct and the diffuse radiation.
Electrical grid
An electrical grid is an interconnected network for electricity delivery from producers to consumers. Electrical grids vary in size and can cover whole countries or continents. It consists of: power stations: often located near energy and away from heavily populated areas electrical substations to step voltage up or down electric power transmission to carry power long distances electric power distribution to individual customers, where voltage is stepped down again to the required service voltage(s).
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