Bayesian inferenceBayesian inference (ˈbeɪziən or ˈbeɪʒən ) is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. Bayesian inference is an important technique in statistics, and especially in mathematical statistics. Bayesian updating is particularly important in the dynamic analysis of a sequence of data. Bayesian inference has found application in a wide range of activities, including science, engineering, philosophy, medicine, sport, and law.
Posterior predictive distributionIn Bayesian statistics, the posterior predictive distribution is the distribution of possible unobserved values conditional on the observed values. Given a set of N i.i.d. observations , a new value will be drawn from a distribution that depends on a parameter , where is the parameter space. It may seem tempting to plug in a single best estimate for , but this ignores uncertainty about , and because a source of uncertainty is ignored, the predictive distribution will be too narrow.
Categorical distributionIn probability theory and statistics, a categorical distribution (also called a generalized Bernoulli distribution, multinoulli distribution) is a discrete probability distribution that describes the possible results of a random variable that can take on one of K possible categories, with the probability of each category separately specified. There is no innate underlying ordering of these outcomes, but numerical labels are often attached for convenience in describing the distribution, (e.g. 1 to K).
Beta distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the beta distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions defined on the interval [0, 1] or (0, 1) in terms of two positive parameters, denoted by alpha (α) and beta (β), that appear as exponents of the variable and its complement to 1, respectively, and control the shape of the distribution. The beta distribution has been applied to model the behavior of random variables limited to intervals of finite length in a wide variety of disciplines.
Orthogonal matrixIn linear algebra, an orthogonal matrix, or orthonormal matrix, is a real square matrix whose columns and rows are orthonormal vectors. One way to express this is where QT is the transpose of Q and I is the identity matrix. This leads to the equivalent characterization: a matrix Q is orthogonal if its transpose is equal to its inverse: where Q−1 is the inverse of Q. An orthogonal matrix Q is necessarily invertible (with inverse Q−1 = QT), unitary (Q−1 = Q∗), where Q∗ is the Hermitian adjoint (conjugate transpose) of Q, and therefore normal (Q∗Q = QQ∗) over the real numbers.
Rotation matrixIn linear algebra, a rotation matrix is a transformation matrix that is used to perform a rotation in Euclidean space. For example, using the convention below, the matrix rotates points in the xy plane counterclockwise through an angle θ about the origin of a two-dimensional Cartesian coordinate system. To perform the rotation on a plane point with standard coordinates v = (x, y), it should be written as a column vector, and multiplied by the matrix R: If x and y are the endpoint coordinates of a vector, where x is cosine and y is sine, then the above equations become the trigonometric summation angle formulae.
Normal-gamma distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the normal-gamma distribution (or Gaussian-gamma distribution) is a bivariate four-parameter family of continuous probability distributions. It is the conjugate prior of a normal distribution with unknown mean and precision. For a pair of random variables, (X,T), suppose that the conditional distribution of X given T is given by meaning that the conditional distribution is a normal distribution with mean and precision — equivalently, with variance Suppose also that the marginal distribution of T is given by where this means that T has a gamma distribution.
Posterior probabilityThe posterior probability is a type of conditional probability that results from updating the prior probability with information summarized by the likelihood via an application of Bayes' rule. From an epistemological perspective, the posterior probability contains everything there is to know about an uncertain proposition (such as a scientific hypothesis, or parameter values), given prior knowledge and a mathematical model describing the observations available at a particular time.
Normal matrixIn mathematics, a complex square matrix A is normal if it commutes with its conjugate transpose A^: The concept of normal matrices can be extended to normal operators on infinite dimensional normed spaces and to normal elements in C-algebras. As in the matrix case, normality means commutativity is preserved, to the extent possible, in the noncommutative setting. This makes normal operators, and normal elements of C*-algebras, more amenable to analysis.
Bayesian statisticsBayesian statistics (ˈbeɪziən or ˈbeɪʒən ) is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability where probability expresses a degree of belief in an event. The degree of belief may be based on prior knowledge about the event, such as the results of previous experiments, or on personal beliefs about the event. This differs from a number of other interpretations of probability, such as the frequentist interpretation that views probability as the limit of the relative frequency of an event after many trials.
