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Publication# Methodology And Convergence Rates For Functional Time Series Regression

Abstract

The functional linear model extends the notion of linear regression to the case where the response and covariates are iid elements of an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space. The unknown to be estimated is a Hilbert-Schmidt operator, whose inverse is by definition unbounded, rendering the problem of inference ill-posed. In this paper, we consider the more general context where the sample of response/covariate pairs forms a weakly dependent stationary process in the respective product Hilbert space: simply stated, the case where we have a regression between functional time series. We consider a general framework of potentially nonlinear processes, expoiting recent advances in the spectral analysis of functional time series. This allows us to quantify the inherent ill-posedness, and to motivate a Tikhonov regularisation technique in the frequency domain. Our main result is the rate of convergence for the corresponding estimators of the regression coefficients, the latter forming a summable sequence in the space of Hilbert-Schmidt operators. In a sense, our main result can be seen as a generalisation of the classical functional linear model rates to the case of time series, and rests only upon Brillinger-type mixing conditions. It is seen that, just as the covariance operator eigenstructure plays a central role in the independent case, so does the spectral density operator's eigenstructure in the dependent case. While the analysis becomes considerably more involved in the dependent case, the rates are strikingly comparable to those of the i.i.d. case, but at the expense of an additional factor caused by the necessity to estimate the spectral density operator at a nonparametric rate, as opposed to the parametric rate for covariance operator estimation.

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Related concepts (7)

Time series

In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart).

Analysis

Analysis (: analyses) is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts in order to gain a better understanding of it. The technique has been applied in the study of mathematics and logic since before Aristotle (384–322 B.C.), though analysis as a formal concept is a relatively recent development. The word comes from the Ancient Greek ἀνάλυσις (analysis, "a breaking-up" or "an untying;" from ana- "up, throughout" and lysis "a loosening"). From it also comes the word's plural, analyses.

Space

Space is a three-dimensional continuum containing positions and directions. In classical physics, physical space is often conceived in three linear dimensions. Modern physicists usually consider it, with time, to be part of a boundless four-dimensional continuum known as spacetime. The concept of space is considered to be of fundamental importance to an understanding of the physical universe. However, disagreement continues between philosophers over whether it is itself an entity, a relationship between entities, or part of a conceptual framework.