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We analyze the recent Multi-index Stochastic Collocation (MISC) method for computing statistics of the solution of a partial differential equation with random data, where the random coefficient is parametrized by means of a countable sequence of terms in a suitable expansion. MISC is a combination technique based on mixed differences of spatial approximations and quadratures over the space of random data and, naturally, the error analysis uses the joint regularity of the solution both with respect to the physical variables (the variables in the phys- ical domain) and the parametric variables (the parameters corresponding to randomness). In MISC, the number of problem solutions performed at each discretization level is not deter- mined by balancing the spatial and stochastic components of the error, but rather by suitably extending the knapsack-problem approach that we have employed in the construction of the quasi-optimal sparse-grids and Multi-index Monte Carlo methods. In this methodology, we use a greedy optimization procedure to select the most effective mixed differences to include in the MISC estimator and provide a complexity analysis based on a summability argument showing algebraic rates of convergence with respect to the overall computational work. We apply our theoretical estimates to a linear elliptic partial differential equation in which the diffusion coefficient is modeled as a random field whose realizations have spatial regularity determined by a scalar parameter (in the spirit of a Matérn covariance) and we estimate the rate of convergence in terms of the smoothness parameter, the physical dimension and the complexity of the linear solver. Numerical experiments show the effectiveness of MISC in this infinite-dimensional setting compared with Multi-index Monte Carlo, as well as the sharpness of the convergence result.
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a priori'' and
a posteriori'' strategies to drive the exploration of the multi-index set that defines the sparse grid, associating a profit to each multi-index either by using explicit theoretical estimates or by actually solving the PDE and computing on the fly the corresponding sparse grid interpolant. We show on several numerical examples the effectiveness of this strategy in treating the case of smooth permeability fields. In order to cover also the case of rough input permeabilities we consider, instead, Multi Level Monte Carlo techniques based on the use of a suitable control variate. Such a control variate is obtained from the solution of an auxiliary Darcy problem with a regularized input permeability which leads to pressure distributions that are smoother and less oscillatory than the original ones, but still highly correlated with them. We use then a sparse grid approximation to compute effectively the mean of the control variate and provide explicit bounds for the corresponding estimator as well as a complexity result. We also consider groundwater transport problems and focus, in particular, on arrival times properly defined starting from particle trajectories driven by the stochastic Darcy velocity and subject to molecular diffusion taking place at porous level. In this case, by using suitable PDEs whose solution can be linked to specific expectations (with respect to all Brownian motions) thanks to the famous Feynman-Kac formula, we compute statistics of such arrival times, e.g. their expected value or the probability of exiting the physical domain in a given time horizon. We discuss several scenarios and readapt the methodologies previously developed involving adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation and Monte Carlo type schemes to this case.Fabio Nobile, Lorenzo Tamellini