Regionalization in energy system planning: Application in Gros-de-Vaud, canton de Vaud

This master project takes part in the context of the 2050 Swiss energetic strategy. In order to reduce impacts caused by the climate change, energetic systems need to be planed and have to decrease at maximum its carbon foot print. Aiming to reach this target, a MILP model was developed to simulate the technologies that could be used to supply an energetic demand given. It takes into account electrical, heat and transport demands. The purpose of this model is to provide insights for decision making. The model is limited to a single region: The canton de Vaud. The 10 districts are included to enable exchange of resources between them. To successfully complete this project, the IPESE lab of EPFL, who developed the model, have collaborated with the company Weinmann-Energies SA. This project has a particular focus on one district: Gros-de-Vaud. It is due to the fact that Weinmann-Energies SA is established in the heart of this district and was involved in the redaction of its regional director plan. The model works in the following way. In a first step, a reference year, 2015, is modeled. The results obtained turned out to be close to the cantonal statistical data. Moreover, a similar model called Vaud EnergyScope was used for the purpose of comparison. In a second step, projections for years 2035 and 2050 are simulated. The goal is to analyze future scenarios proposed by the model as well as the effort needed to achieve it. In order to avoid a subjective approach where someone propose a scenario that could revealed be chosen on too subjective criteria, a method called Sobol sequence is used. It allows to simulate plenty of scenarios by varying some parameters such as the potential of solar, wind and wood, the quantity of natural gas consumed or the investment (CAPEX) made. Thanks to this, hundreds of scenarios are generated and are analyzed using different criteria. For years 2035 and 2050, it is assumed that the canton is able to supply its energetic demand by having important CO2 constraints of minimum 50 % for 2035 and 90 % for 2050. It implies similar or lower cost than in the reference year. Nevertheless, some drastic changes in the electrical and heat production mode have to be considered. In fact, it emerges that natural gas using carbon capture and storage will be a resource that will be largely used to produce electricity. The other part of the mix will be composed by local energetic resources as wind, solar or wood. In terms of heat production, heat pump will be massively used. Regarding transportation, the mobility will become electric except trucks used for freight transport that will run with diesel produced from wood. In the discussion, it was brought out that changes needed to achieve the best scenario might be too important within a short time period, even for 2050. limits and future developments are discussed to improve the model in order to be more realistic.