A successful decarbonisation of the European Union, coupled with a high integration of renewable energy and ambitious targets for energy efficiency, can only be reached with a significant contribution from the transportation sector. It currently represents a quarter of the total greenhouse gas emissions and is shifting from fossil fuels to alternative energy carriers (biofuels, e-hydrogen, electricity) and propulsion systems (hybrid, electric and fuel-cell vehicles). Decarbonising this sector can follow multiple pathways, each having different costs, impacts and implications for the other sectors (industry, residential and services). This paper presents a method to analyse the impact of each decarbonisation pathway in the mobility sector on the overall energy system, using the EnergyScope model. The proposed methods include: (i) an estimation of the hourly demand profiles for short- (local) and long-distance mobility, using annual projections and traffic measurements; (ii) the development of black-box vehicle models of road, rail and aviation technologies; (iii) the modelling of the associated infrastructures, from the fuel conversion processes to the charging stations; and (iv) the use of Monte-Carlo-based tools to account for technical and economic uncertainties. This method allows to assess the effects of mobility decarbonisation pathways on the energy system, from the large-scale deployment of vehicle-to-grid technologies to the integration of biofuel- and hydrogen-based vehicles. France has been taken as case study, considering 2050 as time horizon. The results showed the importance of a holistic approach to suggest cost- and energy-efficient decarbonisation pathways in the transport sector that can affect the overall energy system.
Marc Vielle, Sigit Pria Perdana
François Maréchal, Daniel Alexander Florez Orrego, Meire Ellen Gorete Ribeiro Domingos, Réginald Germanier