Appendix - A modelling framework for assessing the impact of green mobility technologies on energy systems

A successful decarbonisation of the European Union, coupled with a high integration of renewable energy and ambitious targets for energy efficiency, can only be reached with a significant contribution from the transportation sector. It currently represents a quarter of the total greenhouse gas emissions and is shifting from fossil fuels to alternative energy carriers (biofuels, e-hydrogen, electricity) and propulsion systems (hybrid, electric and fuel-cell vehicles). Decarbonising this sector can follow multiple pathways, each having different costs, impacts and implications for the other sectors (industry, residential and services). This paper presents a method to analyse the impact of each decarbonisation pathway in the mobility sector on the overall energy system, using the EnergyScope model. The proposed methods include: (i) an estimation of the hourly demand profiles for short- (local) and long-distance mobility, using annual projections and traffic measurements; (ii) the development of black-box vehicle models of road, rail and aviation technologies; (iii) the modelling of the associated infrastructures, from the fuel conversion processes to the charging stations; and (iv) the use of Monte-Carlo-based tools to account for technical and economic uncertainties. This method allows to assess the effects of mobility decarbonisation pathways on the energy system, from the large-scale deployment of vehicle-to-grid technologies to the integration of biofuel- and hydrogen-based vehicles. France has been taken as case study, considering 2050 as time horizon. The results showed the importance of a holistic approach to suggest cost- and energy-efficient decarbonisation pathways in the transport sector that can affect the overall energy system.

A modelling framework for assessing the impact of green mobility technologies on energy systems

Xiang Li, François Maréchal, Tuong-Van Nguyen, Jonas Schnidrig

A successful decarbonisation of the European Union, coupled with a high integration of renewable energy and ambitious targets for energy efficiency, can only be reached with a significant contribution from the transporta- tion sector. It currently represents a quarter of the total greenhouse gas emissions and is shifting from fossil fuels to alternative energy carriers (biofuels, e-hydrogen, electricity) and propulsion systems (hybrid, electric and fuel-cell vehicles). Decarbonising this sector can follow multiple pathways, each having different costs, im- pacts and implications for the other sectors (industry, residential and services). This paper presents a method to analyse the impact of each decarbonisation pathway in the mobility sector on the overall energy system, using the EnergyScope model. The proposed methods include: (i) an estimation of the hourly demand profiles for short- (local) and long-distance mobility, using annual projections and traffic measurements; (ii) the devel- opment of black-box vehicle models of road, rail and aviation technologies; (iii) the modelling of the associated infrastructures, from the fuel conversion processes to the charging stations; and (iv) the use of Monte-Carlo- based tools to account for technical and economic uncertainties. This method allows to assess the effects of mobility decarbonisation pathways on the energy system, from the large-scale deployment of vehicle-to-grid technologies to the integration of biofuel- and hydrogen-based vehicles. France has been taken as case study, considering 2050 as time horizon. The results showed the importance of a holistic approach to suggest cost- and energy-efficient decarbonisation pathways in the transport sector that can affect the overall energy system.

2021

An analysis of the impacts of green mobility strategies and technologies on different European energy system

François Maréchal, Tuong-Van Nguyen, Jonas Schnidrig

A successful decarbonization of the European Union, coupled with a high integration of renewable energy and ambitious targets for energy efficiency, can only be reached with a significant contribution from transport. This sector currently represents a quarter of the total greenhouse gas emissions and is shifting from fossil fuels to alternative energy carriers and propulsion systems. Decarbonizing this sector can follow multiple pathways, each having different costs, impacts and implications for the other sectors (industry, residential and services). This paper focuses on the impact of different decarbonization paths in the mobility sector on the whole energy system of a country. The hourly and monthly resolution model named EnergyScope was used and applied to three European countries with different characteristics, namely France, Germany and Switzerland. Their energy resources, demands and policies are strongly different, which has an impact on the preferred decar- bonization pathway to follow, and on its final costs and environmental impacts. Regardless of the case study, the most cost- and energy-efficient pathway to decarbonize road and rail mobility is through a heavy electrification, with short-range electric vehicles and buses for local mobility, and either hy- drogen or long-range electric vehicles for long-distance. The most cost-optimum vehicle fleet depends strongly on the projected costs of fuel cell and batteries in the upcoming year, as well as on the wind and solar energy potential. Large-scale deployment of biofuels seems improper for road transport because of the small potentials for sustainable biomass harvesting and the high installation costs of direct air capture, but may be the only viable solution for aviation.

2021

Multiobjective Optimisation of integrated energy systems for remote communities considering economic and CO2 emissions

Daniel Favrat, Geoffrey Basil Leyland, Xavier Pelet

The methods for designing, planning and managing integrated energy systems, while holistically considering the major economic and environmental factors, are still embryonic. However, the first phase of the design is often crucial if we want to manage resources better resource and reduce energy consumption and pollution. Considering integrated energy systems implies dealing with complex systems in which the synergy between the various components is best exploited (for example the thermal energy of a diesel engine produced during the night is complimented by the Ranking Organic Cycle of a solar thermal plant). The context of isolated communities further increases the difficulties when considering the long distance of transport required to supply fossil fuels. These sites are often located in very precarious environments, with limited or nonexistent resources except for solar energy, and with frequent additional needs for desalination (in arid zones). This paper illustrates a holistic method to rationalize the design of energy integrated systems. It is based on a superstructure (collection of models of all envisaged technologies) and a multi-objective optimisation (resources, demand, energy, emission, cost) using an evolutionary algorithm. The approach proposed allows the identification of more complete and more coherent integrated configurations characterizing the most promising designs (also taking into account the time dependency aspects). It also allows to better structure the information in view of a participative decision approach. The study shows that the economic implementation of renewable energy (solar) is even more difficult, compared to Diesel based solutions, in cases of isolated communities with high load variations. New infrastructure or retrofit cases are considered.

2005