Reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions is not the only solution

With the increasing strength and frequency of climate change events, the urgency to mitigate climate change impact is ever so important. Canada reported his Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and submitted its ambition to reduce his Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 40-45% by 2030 compared to 2005 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Interest for energy system modelling has been increasing for planning future energy systems, as a result of growing concern for sustainable development and transition towards renewable energies. Nevertheless, planning a decarbonization of energy system can potentially lead to environmental burden shifting, and can increase impacts on other environmental impacts such as ecosystem quality or human health. Thus, this project aims towards integrating Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) and more specifically Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) within Energy Systems Modelling, in order to minimize not only climate change impacts, but human health and ecosystem quality. In addition, a dual spatial resolution was integrated in the model in order to increase data precision and computational efficiency. The results show that a low-carbon energy system, based on the optimization of GHG emissions allows to greatly reduce all the environmental impacts under analysis, compared to an all economic- based energy system, but a multi-objective optimization allows to simultaneously reduce impacts on ecosystem quality and human health, while reducing GHG emissions and keeping good economical and technical performances. The results also show that it is theoretically possible for Canada to keep on track with their emission reduction ambition by 2030, by deploying more renewable energies. This project does not allow assessing Canada’s potential to reach net-zero emissions, as environmental impacts from carbon capture technologies are still to be characterized and integrated in the model.

Active façades : life cycle environmental impacts and savings of photovoltaic power plants integrated into the building envelope

Gianluca Cattaneo, Angela Clua Longas

Aim and approach used Increased energy supply from photovoltaics is a main priority in the “Energy Strategy 2050”. Within the joint research project "Next generation photovoltaics" funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation, we analysed different options for the enhanced integration of photovoltaic technologies into the envelope of Swiss buildings (BIPV). The PV modules for building integration are using novel monolithic silicon heterojunction organometallic perovskite tandem cells (SHJ-PSC) with adaptions to improve the visual acceptance. In a joint effort of product developers, architects and scientists, this project aimed at providing pathways for the wide-scale use of BIPV façade solutions, and developing integrated designs based on emerging high-efficiency module technologies to improve the visual aspect and acceptance of PV systems installed in Switzerland. These so-called active façades incorporating BIPV modules to generate electricity can provide a significant contribution to the energy transition away from fossil and nuclear fuels. We compared the environmental impacts of different façade construction systems with and without SHJ-PSC BIPV modules with improved visual design, using a prospective life cycle assessment with a time horizon of 2025. The comparison includes a conventional brick and roughcast façade, a timber frame façade, and the Advanced Active Façade (AAF), which integrates SHJ-PSC BIPV modules in a low embodied impact façade substructure. In addition, we compared the environmental impacts caused by the construction of the above described façades with the environmental impacts saved due to the electricity produced by BIPV modules incorporated into the AAF. 2. Scientific innovation and relevance Our research focuses on the combined expertise of life cycle thinking, PV module development and façade design. The major scientific innovations are: 1) the prospective life cycle assessment of novel monolithic silicon heterojunction organometallic perovskite tandem cells (SHJ-PSC); 2) the comparison of different façade construction systems and their environmental impacts; 3) the quantification of the saved environmental impacts arising from the electricity generated by the active façade; and 4) the visual adjustments of PV modules to improve their acceptance. The main advantage of integrating PV into building façades is the large available area, which can be limited on rooftops. In order to reach the market penetration for PV required for the energy transition, PV modules must be integrated into façades as well as into rooftops. 3. Results and conclusions An equilibrium must be achieved among different technical and aesthetic issues when integrating energy generation systems into the building envelope, especially into the façade for its public condition and exposure. Based on these prerequisites, the research team has developed the AAF which combines passive and active energy design strategies while meeting contemporary architectural requirements. This façade design is based on low-embodied-energy construction principles, it is defined by a non-loadbearing wood-panel substructure and it integrates a double layer of natural insulation: cellulose and wood-fibre. In addition, its design incorporates an opaque SHJ-PSC BIPV façade-cladding following contemporary façade design trends. (Figure 1). The use of photovoltaic modules integrated into the façade cladding or roof will increase the environmental impact of the building envelope, compared to using conventional construction materials. The environmental impacts of the AAF using PV modules are two to four times higher compared to a conventional façade. The PV modules cause the highest share of greenhouse gas emissions of the AAF with about 375 kg CO2-eq per square meter (see Figure 2). The additional materials required to build the AAF including exterior panels, insulation and other materials cause about 75 kg CO2-eq per square meter of façade. The brick and timber frame façades cause greenhouse gas emissions around 200 and 100 kg CO2-eq, respectively. If the greenhouse gas emissions caused by the PV module is excluded this will result in a reduction between 25 and 125 kg CO2-eq per square meter of façade. However, the environmental impacts of the AAF are significantly reduced if the whole life cycle is considered due to the PV electricity produced by the building. Therefore, we calculated the saved greenhouse gas emissions due to the electricity produced by the advanced active façade and fed to the European electricity grid using the greenhouse gas emissions caused by the current European electricity mix as reference. These calculated savings due to the electricity produced by the BIPV are about 4 times higher than the impacts of the advanced active façade. Incorporating BIPV panels into building’s façades will cause net savings of about 1700 kg CO2-eq per square meter over the whole life cycle of BIPV façades, while simultaneously saving up to 125 kg CO2-eq per square meter of façade for the reduced material demand to build the façade (see Figure 3). We performed this analysis for 16 different environmental impacts according to the recommended midpoints by the Joint Research Council of the European Commission. The results were comparable to greenhouse gas emissions with the net saved environmental impacts being many times higher for all the environmental impacts analysed except mineral resource use caused by the indium used in the novel SHJ-PSC tandem module (see Figure 4). To conclude, the use of PV modules in AAF can reduce the greenhouse gas emissions per square meter of façade between 25 and 60 % if the production of the PV module and its produced electricity are excluded. If the production and life cycle of the PV modules are included into the analysis the AAF will cause net greenhouse gas savings up to four times higher than the production of the AAF itself. The results for environmental impacts other than greenhouse gases were similar except for mineral resource depletion. Overall, the building integration of photovoltaic modules as AAF will reduce the environmental impacts of the building while simultaneously providing a visually appealing building envelope.

2019

Socio-Economic Assessment of Fusion Energy Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment Programme

Denis Bednyagin

Providing safe, clean and affordable energy supply is essential for meeting the basic needs of human society and for supporting economic growth. From the historical perspective, the constantly growing energy use was one of the main factors, which drove the industrialised countries to the current level of prosperity. Meanwhile, in recent decades, the issue of global energy security became a topic of increasing concern in the international policy agenda. On the one hand, the world is facing the problem of exhaustion of most convenient and cheep fuel reserves. The situation is becoming worse, because of the constantly growing demand in developing countries, and the oligopolistic behaviour of major energy exporting countries. On the other hand, the society is becoming more and more sensitive to the environmental pollution problems, caused by the excessive consumption of fossil fuels. In the face of energy security challenge, national governments ought to implement adequate strategies aimed at liberalisation of energy markets, diversification of energy supply mix, enhancement of energy efficiency, encouragement of investments in energy infrastructures, and promotion of innovation in energy sector. In a longer term perspective, the latter point becomes increasingly important, because the world is relying currently on the consumption of non-renewable fossil fuels, and the development of new safe, clean and resource unconstraint energy technologies is vitally needed. In line with this strategy, the major world economies pursue the joint R&D programme on thermonuclear Fusion technology, which represents numerous advantages due to its inherent safety, avoidance of CO2 emissions, relatively small environmental impact, abundance and world-wide uniform distribution of fuel resources. Considering the importance of the projected environmental and economic benefits of Fusion, the questions are raised whether the current level of financial support is sufficient, and what could be the optimal strategy to proceed with the demonstration of Fusion technology, given the time span and potential risks of Fusion RDDD programme. To put these questions into the context, one has to consider the current trends in energy R&D funding, which has seen a drastic decline ( ~50%) over the last three decades. The liberalisation of energy sector poses additional problem due to the fact that free markets partially failure to provide public goods, such as basic science and R&D, because of the so-called spillover effects meaning that the firms are not able to appropriate the integral results of their R&D investments. Regarding the thermonuclear Fusion technology, the decision makers responsible for national energy policies and allocation of public R&D funds may face the following specific questions: What is the expected net socio-economic payoff (social rate of return) of Fusion R&D programme, including both internal and external costs and benefits? What are the reasonable economic arguments that could justify the increase in public funding of the ongoing and future Fusion R&D activities and would stimulate greater involvement of the private sector? What additional value can be obtained through undertaking a more ambitious Fusion R&D programme (accelerated development path), which requires bigger number of experimental facilities, increased funding, and more intense overall efforts of international scientific and industrial community? In order to provide sound arguments for policymakers seeking to optimise public R&D funding, a robust socio-economic evaluation of the whole Fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) programme is needed. At the present stage, prospective analyses of Fusion technology have been emphasised mainly on the investigation of technological issues, estimation of the direct costs of Fusion power and analysis of its potential role in future energy systems. Meanwhile, methodological tools and practical studies aiming at a more comprehensive socio-economic assessment of global long-term energy R&D programmes, such as Fusion, are still incomplete. The primary difficulty concerns the evaluation of positive externalities that may reveal through different types of spillover effects, including but not limited to knowledge, network and market spillovers. While the presence of these effects has been identified in the economic theory and confirmed by empirical studies, their quantitative analysis in the specific case of large scale energy R&D programmes represents some methodological lacuna and deserves further investigation. Another problem relates to the methodology of cost-benefit analysis, which oftentimes ignores the hidden value of R&D projects arising due to the possible flexibility in managerial decisions. In fact, throughout the course of any R&D project, its prospective cash-flows can be significantly improved by pro-active management of different implementation stages, e.g. expanding the production, if market conditions are favourable, or abandoning, if R&D process appears to be unproductive. As a result, the strategic value of any R&D project normally exceeds its net present value (NPV) calculated with the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Although this strategic approach to capital budgeting, known as Real Options, has been propagated recently in several publications dealing with appraisal of lumpy irreversible investments, its practical application in the context of Fusion RDDD programme has not been mastered yet to the required extent. A particular challenge consists in the need for adequate treatment of different types of uncertainty in the model structure, parameters and input data. Accordingly, the main objective of this thesis consists in complementing the existing studies with an in-depth analysis of the positive externalities (spillover benefits) of Fusion RDDD programme and calculation of its strategic real options value subject to different managerial strategies throughout demonstration and deployment stages. Net social present value of Fusion RDDD programme and potential impact of Fusion R&D activities on the economic performance of the involved private companies are estimated using an integrated modelling framework, which includes the following components: (1) assessment of technological potential for deployment of Fusion power plants based on the simulation of multi-regional long term electricity supply scenarios with PLANELEC model; (2) economic evaluation of Fusion RDDD programme and analysis of different implementation strategies using Real Options model; (3) estimation of the economic value of spillover benefits from participation in Fusion R&D projects at the microeconomic level with the help of financial evaluation model; (4) strategic evaluation of Fusion RDDD programme, taking into account both spillover benefits and real options value, and policy recommendations.

EPFL2010

Methodology for the identification of promising integrated biorefineries

Ayse Dilan Celebi

Steady increase in global energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and depletion of fossil energy resources, together with increased attention towards sustainable development has prompted researchers to discover economical and environmentally competitive non-petroleum alternatives and biomass is considered to be one of the most promising renewable sources of energy and carbon of this matter to address the aforementioned issues within a biorefinery platform. A biorefinery is an integrated processing facility that converts biomass into transportation fuels, value-added chemicals, heat, and electricity via biochemical and thermochemical conversion routes. Integrated biorefineries are capable of mimicking petroleum refineries via application of advanced process synthesis methods including modeling, simulation, integration and optimization techniques. This thesis presents a comprehensive synthesis methodology for the integration of bioprocessing technologies in biorefineries by addressing techno-economic and environmental sustainability analysis. The proposed systematic design approach combines advanced process modeling approaches, process integration techniques, and multi-objective optimization algorithms to assess the performance of the overall system with respect to economic, environmental, and energetic indicators. The design strategy is applied based on different case studies. Results indicate that multi-product processes can yield significant cost and environmental benefits. Additionally, the integration of biochemical and catalytic processes with thermochemical conversion pathways results in increased carbon efficiency and economic and environmental competitiveness. Synergies between biorefineries and energy system are assessed by integrating industrial plants with a cogeneration system producing biofuels and process heat. In doing so, system efficiency is increased by coupling the proposed cogeneration system with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and power-to-gas technologies to store the renewable intermittent electricity in the form of biofuels. The results exhibit that through system expansion, integrated biorefinery systems allow us to imitate fossil refineries with a large spectrum of bio-based products. This further increases the resource efficiency while offering a promising solution to mitigate CO2 emissions and hence reaching the longer-term decarbonization target set by the Paris Agreement.

EPFL2019