Modelling the future secondary resource availability and recycling potential of aluminium in austria

Production of secondary aluminium (Al) currently represents about 70% of total European Al production with a still rising trend and about 50% European final Al demand. The utilization of anthropogenic Al resources as secondary raw materials is therefore a core aspect of moving towards a circular economy, from an ecological as well as from a raw material supply perspective. With respect to Al resource management, dynamic material flow models can be used to understand patterns of Al use, the evolution of Al stocks, and the future availability of Al scrap. In this study, a dynamic aluminium flow model is developed in order to investigate Austrian Al consumption, in-use stocks and post-consumer (old scrap) flows during the last five decades, from 1964 to 2012. It is found, that during the past 20 years Austrian Al in-use stocks have more than doubled up to the level of 360 kg/capita in 2012. Almost two thirds of the Al stock are contained in buildings and transport applications. In recent years, total old scrap generation amount to almost 50% of final Al consumption. Based on the historic Al model and projections of Al consumption until 2050, the future development of in-use stocks and old scrap generation is estimated. An increase of 130% in total old scrap generation is expected compared to the current levels. Modelled trends on scrap generation are finally contrasted with end-use Al demand as well as with industrial scrap demand in order to display the potential for future Al self-supply in Austria. Since improved recycling is a major aspect of European resource policy, opportunities and limits of increasing the domestic supply with domestic Al scrap, through increased collection rates, are shown.