An Optimal Allocation between R&D and Prototype Funding: The Case of Generation IV International Forum’s Nuclear Energy Initiative

National Research Council of the National Academies, Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward (2005) proposes a cost-benefit methodology to evaluate U.S. Department of Energy’s Research, Development, and Demonstration (RD&D) programs. This paper develops the methodology for nuclear energy programs. The RD&D process is analyzed in two stages with two success probabilities: (1) that the technology will transition from the R&D Stage to the Prototype Demonstration Stage, and (2) that the technology will be adopted commercially. It models discounted expected total benefits of an RD&D program as a function of the levels of funding, stage durations, the probabilities of success, and spillovers to other technologies. Project duration is an exponential function of funding. Project success is a logistic function of funding and uncertainty. Spillovers are linear functions of funding at each stage. This specification allows calculation of the marginal effects of changes in funding on discounted expected total benefits for a single technology. The paper uses this method to offer an optimal allocation of pre-prototype R&D funding in the development of the Generation IV International Forum’s advanced nuclear energy systems under a specific parameterization and funding constraint.

Standardisation des outils de calcul pour les ADS et leur application à différents scénarios de transmutation des déchets

Marco Cometto

The management of radioactive wastes from the nuclear fuel cycle has become an important issue in the development of future, more sustainable nuclear energy systems. Partitioning and transmutation (P&T) of actinides and some long-lived fission products could reduce the mass and radiotoxicity of highlevel wastes and possibly ease repository licensing requirements. Influenced by political and technological developments, an increasing number of countries employing nuclear power have become interested in P&T technology which involves the development of new types of critical and/or sub-critical reactors and very efficient fuel cycle strategies. The present thesis is closely connected to two P&T related projects of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency in Paris, a numerical benchmark exercise for an accelerator-driven minor actinides burner and a calculational system study on the role of accelerator-driven systems (ADS) and advanced fast reactors (FR) in advanced nuclear fuel cycles. The author co-coordinated the benchmark exercise and performed the comparative analysis of the different "fuel cycle schemes" investigated in the system study. The benchmark exercise contributed to a greater understanding of the physical phenomena characteristic of the transmutation of actinides in a closed fuel cycle, and allowed to test and improve the tools used for modeling ADSs and corresponding advanced fuel cycles. This work thus effectively led to the development of an efficient and more complete calculational scheme, which has permitted an in-depth and reliable analysis of different transmutation scenarios to be carried out. To quantitatively assess the advantages and drawbacks of transmutation, we considered a limited number of "base" transmutation scenarios which constitute an envelope for various possible transmutation strategies employing fast spectrum systems. We then evaluated, for an equilibrium situation, the main aspects which characterise the different transmutation strategies, such as the nuclear park composition, the mass and toxicity of the waste, the need for natural uranium, the in-pile and out-pile mass inventories and, finally, the fuel cycle requirements. Thus, this study has allowed for the reliable comparison of performances of the three main options in the nuclear waste management, viz. open cycle, recycling of plutonium alone and recycling of all the actinides, as well as an evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of ADSs in comparison to advanced critical reactors in the management of minor actinides or transuranics. The last part of the dissertation is dedicated to a phase-out study for two schemes employing either ADSs or critical reactors. It has been shown thereby that advanced systems, optimised for an equilibrium fuel composition, can indeed be used to reduce the inventory of transuranics. A comparison of ADS and FR performances has been made in this context, and the relative benefits of transmutation have been quantified in each case taking into consideration, more realistically, the residual mass inventory after the shutdown of all nuclear installations.

EPFL2003

Préparation et caractérisation de nanoparticules bimétalliques (Pt-Au) sur un substrat en diamant dopé au bore

Bahaa El Roustom

Using petrol as a main source of energy, during the 20th century, has caused considerable amounts of damage among which are atmospheric pollution and global warming. At the same time, many geologists and economists expect that the discovery rate of new petrol sources will not follow the market's demand causing a serious shortage of petrol in the near future. These alarming perspectives have motivated scientists around the world to develop new clean and renewable energy sources. It is in that objective that electrochemists intensified their research in order to develop the fuel cell technology. This latter consists in directly converting chemical energy into electricity. The main advantage of this technology over traditional energy production is that the fuel cell energy efficiency is Carnot cycle independent. The theoretical efficiency of such an energy source is nearly 90%. Direct Alcohol Fuel Cell (DAFC), fed by ethanol on one hand and by air (oxygen) in the other hand, is a very interesting option for such kind of energy production. Ethanol is a renewable energy source of vegetal origin whose CO2 production is consumed by plants during the cycle. Even though Pt has long been known to be a perfect catalyst for DAFC, it has some principal limitations, the most important ones being poisoning by intermediate products (OH on the cathodic side and CO on the anodic side) and a relatively high cost compared to other materials. These problems have pushed the experts in the field to focalize their research on the development of more suitable and better performing materials. Gold nanoparticles have shown a surprising catalytic activity, very different from the bulk, making them a preferential candidate to replace Pt. A system based on using two or more metals as catalysts (example Au-Pt) dispersed on an appropriate substrate seems to be also an interesting candidate to enhance the cell's efficiency. The substrate should be chemically inert, non-oxydable and should not present any interference with the electrochemical and electrocatalytic behaviour of the nanoparticles. In the first part, the employed substrate, which is boron doped diamond (BDD) is characterized. The substrate's main characteristics are its chemical inertness, its weak residual current and its resistance to corrosion. These characteristics contribute to making the substrate an ideal support for nanoparticles. In this work, the substrate is a diamond film, but for fuel cell applications diamond should be used as powder or dispersed particles. In chapters III and IV, we studied the effect of boron incorporation on the morphology and the behaviour of the diamond film. For this purpose, samples with different ratios of boron/carbon (B/C) in the vapour phase during preparation were characterized (B/C = 300, 1000, 2500 and 6000 ppm). Results showed that the grain size decreases with increasing boron content in the film. This is accompanied by a transition towards a quasi-metallic character. It was also found that graphitic impurities in the diamond film increase when the B/C ratio increases. We also established some graphitic impurities increase in the diamond film when the ratio of B/C increases. The identity of these impurities was established in chapter III as being surface redox couples (semi-quinone/semi-hydroquinone). Using cyclic voltametry we were able to observe a total elimination (B/C=300 ppm) or partial elimination (B/C=6000 ppm) of these surface redox couples. We also found in chapter IV that these surface redox couples are responsible of the electrochemical activity of the BDD electrode. BDD electrodes with different doping level B/C=300, 1000 and 6000 ppm) in the vapour phase are modified with IrO2 nanoparticles using the method of thermal decomposition. Our results showed that, at low potentials, the behaviour of the composite electrode IrO2/BDD with respect to the reaction of oxygen evolution is independent of the doping level. On the other hand, at high potentials, the weakly doped electrode (B/C=300 ppm) presents a supplementary overpotential due to the interface BDD-IrO2. An approach based on the double junction is developed in this work describing two distinct behaviours depending on the boron concentration in the diamond film. A new method for Au nanoparticles deposition on highly doped BDD electrodes (B/C= 2500 ppm) is presented in chapter VI. This method involves two steps: the first step consists on sputtering the equivalent of few nanolayers of Au on the diamond surface; the second step is a heat treatment in air at high temperatures. Several parameters that could influence the dispersion, the stability as well as the diameter of the Au nanoparticles are studied. In chapter VII, the behaviour of the composite electrode Au/BDD is studied in a solution containing redox couples in acid media. This electrode was simulated as an arrangement of active Au microelectrodes dispersed on a less active BDD substrate. The overall behaviour of the composite electrode (Au/BDD) has been related to the electrochemical rate constants on each material. In chapter VIII, another new synthesis method for a bimetallic system formed by Au and Pt nanoparticles dispersed on a BDD substrate is developed. This method consists in electrodepositing a small amount of Pt on a composite electrode Au/BDD. Our results showed that Pt was preferentially deposited on Au covering its whole surface. In fact, Au nanoparticles serve as germ of nucleation for Pt. In the following step, the bimetallic PtbAu/BDD is heated to 400°C in air to enhance the interaction between Au and Pt. The experiments showed that Au reappeared on the surface. The electrochemical behaviour of the bi-metallic electrode is characterized by a negative shift in the peak potential of reduction of Pt oxides. This is not the case of heterogeneous alloys obtained by the fusion of two metals at high temperatures. The composite electrode Au/BDD as well as the bi-metallic electrode Pt-Au/BDD are used for electrocatalytic applications. The studied reaction in chapter IX is the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in an acid medium. We found that the number of exchanged electrons increases with increasing the amount of Pt at the surface. Oxygen is reduced into H2O2 on the Au/BDD electrode and into H2O on the Pt-Au/BDD electrode. In chapter X we studied the reaction of oxidation of oxalic acid. The behaviour of both Au and Pt electrodes seemed very similar for this reaction. The bi-metallic electrode containing both Pt and Au on its surface has shown an intermediate behaviour between the behaviour of the two metals.

EPFL2006

Socio-Economic Assessment of Fusion Energy Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment Programme

Denis Bednyagin

Providing safe, clean and affordable energy supply is essential for meeting the basic needs of human society and for supporting economic growth. From the historical perspective, the constantly growing energy use was one of the main factors, which drove the industrialised countries to the current level of prosperity. Meanwhile, in recent decades, the issue of global energy security became a topic of increasing concern in the international policy agenda. On the one hand, the world is facing the problem of exhaustion of most convenient and cheep fuel reserves. The situation is becoming worse, because of the constantly growing demand in developing countries, and the oligopolistic behaviour of major energy exporting countries. On the other hand, the society is becoming more and more sensitive to the environmental pollution problems, caused by the excessive consumption of fossil fuels. In the face of energy security challenge, national governments ought to implement adequate strategies aimed at liberalisation of energy markets, diversification of energy supply mix, enhancement of energy efficiency, encouragement of investments in energy infrastructures, and promotion of innovation in energy sector. In a longer term perspective, the latter point becomes increasingly important, because the world is relying currently on the consumption of non-renewable fossil fuels, and the development of new safe, clean and resource unconstraint energy technologies is vitally needed. In line with this strategy, the major world economies pursue the joint R&D programme on thermonuclear Fusion technology, which represents numerous advantages due to its inherent safety, avoidance of CO2 emissions, relatively small environmental impact, abundance and world-wide uniform distribution of fuel resources. Considering the importance of the projected environmental and economic benefits of Fusion, the questions are raised whether the current level of financial support is sufficient, and what could be the optimal strategy to proceed with the demonstration of Fusion technology, given the time span and potential risks of Fusion RDDD programme. To put these questions into the context, one has to consider the current trends in energy R&D funding, which has seen a drastic decline ( ~50%) over the last three decades. The liberalisation of energy sector poses additional problem due to the fact that free markets partially failure to provide public goods, such as basic science and R&D, because of the so-called spillover effects meaning that the firms are not able to appropriate the integral results of their R&D investments. Regarding the thermonuclear Fusion technology, the decision makers responsible for national energy policies and allocation of public R&D funds may face the following specific questions: What is the expected net socio-economic payoff (social rate of return) of Fusion R&D programme, including both internal and external costs and benefits? What are the reasonable economic arguments that could justify the increase in public funding of the ongoing and future Fusion R&D activities and would stimulate greater involvement of the private sector? What additional value can be obtained through undertaking a more ambitious Fusion R&D programme (accelerated development path), which requires bigger number of experimental facilities, increased funding, and more intense overall efforts of international scientific and industrial community? In order to provide sound arguments for policymakers seeking to optimise public R&D funding, a robust socio-economic evaluation of the whole Fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) programme is needed. At the present stage, prospective analyses of Fusion technology have been emphasised mainly on the investigation of technological issues, estimation of the direct costs of Fusion power and analysis of its potential role in future energy systems. Meanwhile, methodological tools and practical studies aiming at a more comprehensive socio-economic assessment of global long-term energy R&D programmes, such as Fusion, are still incomplete. The primary difficulty concerns the evaluation of positive externalities that may reveal through different types of spillover effects, including but not limited to knowledge, network and market spillovers. While the presence of these effects has been identified in the economic theory and confirmed by empirical studies, their quantitative analysis in the specific case of large scale energy R&D programmes represents some methodological lacuna and deserves further investigation. Another problem relates to the methodology of cost-benefit analysis, which oftentimes ignores the hidden value of R&D projects arising due to the possible flexibility in managerial decisions. In fact, throughout the course of any R&D project, its prospective cash-flows can be significantly improved by pro-active management of different implementation stages, e.g. expanding the production, if market conditions are favourable, or abandoning, if R&D process appears to be unproductive. As a result, the strategic value of any R&D project normally exceeds its net present value (NPV) calculated with the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Although this strategic approach to capital budgeting, known as Real Options, has been propagated recently in several publications dealing with appraisal of lumpy irreversible investments, its practical application in the context of Fusion RDDD programme has not been mastered yet to the required extent. A particular challenge consists in the need for adequate treatment of different types of uncertainty in the model structure, parameters and input data. Accordingly, the main objective of this thesis consists in complementing the existing studies with an in-depth analysis of the positive externalities (spillover benefits) of Fusion RDDD programme and calculation of its strategic real options value subject to different managerial strategies throughout demonstration and deployment stages. Net social present value of Fusion RDDD programme and potential impact of Fusion R&D activities on the economic performance of the involved private companies are estimated using an integrated modelling framework, which includes the following components: (1) assessment of technological potential for deployment of Fusion power plants based on the simulation of multi-regional long term electricity supply scenarios with PLANELEC model; (2) economic evaluation of Fusion RDDD programme and analysis of different implementation strategies using Real Options model; (3) estimation of the economic value of spillover benefits from participation in Fusion R&D projects at the microeconomic level with the help of financial evaluation model; (4) strategic evaluation of Fusion RDDD programme, taking into account both spillover benefits and real options value, and policy recommendations.

EPFL2010