Political forecasting

Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions by political leaders and other areas relating to politicians and political institutions. The area of political forecasting concerning elections is highly popular, especially amongst mass market audiences. Political forecasting methodology makes frequent use of mathematics, statistics and data science. Political forecasting as it pertains to elections is related to psephology. People have long been interested in predicting election outcomes. Quotes of betting odds on papal succession appear as early as 1503, when such wagering was already considered "an old practice." Political betting also has a long history in Great Britain. As one prominent example, Charles James Fox, the late-eighteenth-century Whig statesman, was known as an inveterate gambler. His biographer, George Otto Trevelyan, noted that"(f)or ten years, from 1771 onwards, Charles Fox betted frequently, largely, and judiciously, on the social and political occurrences of the time." Before the advent of scientific polling in 1936, betting odds in the United States correlated strongly to vote results. Since 1936, opinion polls have been a basic part of political forecasting. More recently, prediction markets have been formed, starting in 1988 with Iowa Electronic Markets. With the advent of statistical techniques, electoral data have become increasingly easy to handle. It is no surprise, then, that election forecasting has become a big business, for polling firms, news organizations, and betting markets as well as academic students of politics. Academic scholars have constructed models of voting behavior to forecast the outcomes of elections. These forecasts are derived from theories and empirical evidence about what matters to voters when they make electoral choices. The forecast models typically rely on a few predictors in highly aggregated form, with an emphasis on phenomena that change in the short-run, such as the state of the economy, so as to offer maximum leverage for predicting the result of a specific election.

À propos de ce résultat

Cette page est générée automatiquement et peut contenir des informations qui ne sont pas correctes, complètes, à jour ou pertinentes par rapport à votre recherche. Il en va de même pour toutes les autres pages de ce site. Veillez à vérifier les informations auprès des sources officielles de l'EPFL.

Concepts associés (5)

Pséphologie

La pséphologie (du grec psephos ψῆφος, galet, car les Grecs utilisaient des galets comme des bulletins de vote) est une branche de la science politique qui traite de l'étude et de l'analyse scientifique des élections. Le terme a été inventé en 1948 au Royaume-Uni, par William Hardie (1902-1990) à la demande de son ami Ronald McCallum, et fut utilisé pour la première fois à l'écrit en 1952. La pséphologie est une division de la science politique qui traite de l'analyse statistique des élections et des sondages.

Nate Silver

Nathaniel Read Silver dit Nate Silver, né le à East Lansing dans le Michigan, est un statisticien, sabermétricien et écrivain américain spécialisé dans les calculs statistiques des résultats de la Ligue majeure de baseball et des élections. Il est le fondateur du site FiveThirtyEight. Silver est tout d'abord connu pour avoir développé le système PECOTA visant à prévoir les résultats et les possibles évolutions de carrière des joueurs de la Ligue majeure de baseball; système qu'il vend à la société Baseball Prospectus et qu'il dirige pour elle de 2003 à 2009.