Vulnérabilité (sécurité) | EPFL Graph Search

En étude et gestion des risques, la vulnérabilité d'un groupe, d'une organisation, d'un élément bâti ou d'une zone géographique est le point faible de cette entité, pouvant être défini par :

un objet de risque : ressource qui est en risque, pouvant appartenir à cinq classes : humaine, technique, informations, partenaires et financières (H, T, I, P, F). Un exemple d'objet de risque est une Installation classée pour la protection de l'environnement (ICPE).
des causes : facteurs de risque ou périls, événements aléatoires dont la survenance prive l'organisation ou l'entité de son intégrité, ou d'une ressource partiellement ou totalement, de façon provisoire ou définitive.
des conséquences : impacts potentiels ; il s'agit de façon générale de l'impact (plus ou moins grave, durable ou irréversible) sur l'état et les fonctions de l'entité, l'atteinte des objectifs fondamentaux de l'organisation. Tous ne sont pas facilement traduisibles en termes financiers, comme le mainti

Vulnérabilité sismique à grande échelle de la ville de Lausanne

Loris Silva Brites

The assessment of the risk maps for the seismic vulnerability at large scale is based on the vulnerability of each building. In order to determine these vulnerabilities, it is first required to assign to each building its construction class. The construction class is needed to define the seismic behavior of the building. Since the structures have been built in different times, this construction classes are different between them, and their vulnerability values have been pre-defined in order to simplify the analysis. If, for a small city the task of assign to each building its construction class can be done by hand, in a big city, with thousands of buildings, this process can result long and hard. In this Master project the possibility of assigning the construction classes by using a machine learning method will be studied. This method use as a data set of the city of Lausanne from previous works which contains around 1000 buildings analyzed by hand with their construction classes. The goal of this method is to find the relationships between the attributes of the buildings to their construction classes. Thanks to the statistical offices, it is possible to obtain the attributes in an automatic way for every building in a city. Based on the relations that the machine learning method finds (and using the statistical attributes) the construction class for every building can finally be determined, in a quick and efficient manner. Once obtained the vulnerability’s values for each building, the risk maps can be drawn. In this project there will be studied three maps, two with the Europeans’ typologies (LM1, LM2), and one with the Swiss’ typologies (UniGE). Some comparisons will be made between the maps, in order to highlight the differences. Some other comparisons will be made to show the impact of the new micro zonation of Lausanne and of the new optimized method for the determination of the seismic displacement demand (N2 optimized method) on the maps. This is done for the mechanical methods (LM2 and UniGE) only. Finally, there will be shown the relationships between the soil’s characteristics (micro zonation), the building’s attributes and the city’s historical evolution with the risk maps.

2020

Local Vulnerabilities and Global Robustness of Coupled Dynamical Systems on Complex Networks

Melvyn Sandy Tyloo

Coupled dynamical systems are omnipresent in everyday life. In general, interactions between individual elements composing the system are captured by complex networks. The latter greatly impact the way coupled systems are functioning and evolving in time. An important task in such a context, is to identify the most fragile components of a system in a fast and efficient manner. It is also highly desirable to have bounds on the amplitude and duration of perturbations that could potentially drive the system through a transition from one equi- librium to another. A paradigmatic model of coupled dynamical system is that of oscillatory networks. In these systems, a phenomenon known as synchronization where the individual elements start to behave coherently may occur if couplings are strong enough. We propose frameworks to assess vulnerabilities of such synchronous states to external perturbations. We consider transient excursions for both small-signal response and larger perturbations that can potentially drive the system out of its initial basin of attraction. In the first part of this thesis, we investigate the robustness of complex network-coupled oscillators. We consider transient excursions following external perturbations. For ensemble averaged perturbations, quite remarkably we find that robustness of a network is given by a family of network descriptors that we called generalized Kirchhoff indices and which are defined from extensions of the resistance distance to arbitrary powers of the Laplacian matrix of the system. These indices allow an efficient and accurate assessment of the overall vulnera- bility of an oscillatory network and can be used to compare robustness of different networks. Moreover, a network can be made more robust by minimizing its Kirchhoff indices. Then for specific local perturbations, we show that local vulnerabilities are captured by generalized resistance centralities also defined from extensions of the resistance distance. Most fragile nodes are therefore identified as the least central according to resistance centralities. Based on the latter, rankings of the nodes from most to least vulnerable can be established. In summary, we find that both local vulnerabilities and global robustness are accurately evaluated with resistance centralities and Kirchhoff indices. Moreover, the framework that we define is rather general and may be useful to analyze other coupled dynamical systems. In the second part, we focus on the effect of larger perturbations that eventually lead the sys- tem to an escape from its initial basin of attraction. We consider coupled oscillators subjected to noise with various amplitudes and correlation in time. To predict desynchronization and transitions between synchronous states, we propose a simple heuristic criterion based on the distance between the initial stable fixed point and the closest saddle point. Surprisingly, we find numerically that our criterion leads to rather accurate estimates for the survival probability and first escape time. Our criterion is general and may be applied to other dynamical systems.

EPFL2020