Air quality modelling over Bogota, Colombia: Combined techniques to estimate and evaluate emission inventories

Two versions of the Emission Inventory (EI) are generated for the city of Bogota, Colombia. In the first version (EI-1), CORINAIR traffic emission factors (EFs) are used. In the second (EI-2), bulk traffic EF's calculated for the city, using in situ measurements and inverse modelling techniques at street level, are used. EI-2 traffic emissions are 5, 4 and 3 times bigger than the corresponding values in EI-1, for CO, PM10 and NMVOCs, respectively. The main goal of this study consists in evaluating the two versions of the El when introduced into a mesoscale air quality model. The AOT (accumulated exposure over a threshold) index is calculated for comparison between observed and simulated concentrations of primary pollutants. Simulated concentrations using EI-2 are closer to the observed values. This comparison allows us to extract some conclusions of the methodology used to calculate the EFs. Local factors like the driving behavior, the altitude, vehicle technology and an aged fleet cannot be totally included and corrected in the standard methodologies, and seem to be more important than obtaining very detailed and precise information on the classification of the fleet or driving speeds. Under financially limited and fast changing situations, as in the case of many developing countries, a simple methodology to estimate bulk traffic Ef's and to evaluate the Ell, is of utmost importance. The use of combined techniques such as in situ measurements to estimate bulk traffic EFs, and further evaluation of the inventories with numerical models, proved to be a useful too] for this purpose. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal Methodology to Generate Road Traffic Emissions for Air Quality Modeling

Quoc Bang Ho

Growing population, consuming a large amount of energy such as combustion of fossil fuel, increasing pollutant emissions in the atmosphere are the threats to the sustainable development of our planet in general, and of the air quality in particular. According to the World Health Organization, air pollution causes the death of more than 2 million people per year in developing countries, and millions of people also suffer from various respiratory illnesses. Road traffic is the main source of air pollution in cities and there are large uncertainties associated to this source of pollution. Different models are available to quantify the amount of pollutants released by road traffic. However, these models always require a large amount of information and work, and thus their use results expensive. These limitations are difficult for the study and the management of air quality in cities from the developing world. Thus, it is extremely difficult to design efficient abatement strategies to reduce air pollution. For this reason, it is necessary to develop a new methodology for generating road traffic emissions to contribute to a better management of the urban air quality. The first aim of this PhD thesis is to develop and to validate a new model for generating road traffic emissions in several steps with different levels of complexity. The developed model is called EMISENS. Its main specifications are: (i) EMISENS is able to compute a total amount of emissions and to distribute it in time and in space using a methodology which combines the top-down and the bottom-up approaches; (ii) the model is able to compute the emissions and the uncertainties within a reasonable computing time and (iii) the model formulation is based on well referenced methodology (COPERT IV). The validation of EMISENS model was carried out by its application over Strasbourg, France. The results of EMISENS have been compared with the results of the more complete and complex model Circul'air which is currently used to manage the Strasbourg air quality. After comparing the results of the two models, it appeared that they are very close. This example of application illustrates the capacity of EMISENS to calculate road traffic emission inventory (EI) for cities in developed countries as well as in developing countries. Further on, a complete EI is carried out over Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) by applying an innovative methodology based on the application of the EMISENS model. HCMC is the largest city in Vietnam, it had more than 6 million inhabitants in 2006. It has more than three million vehicles and 28,500 factories in the city. High levels of air pollution are thus very often detected. The purpose of this part of the research consists in applying the EMISENS model to generate road traffic emissions. For the other emission sources, the top-down approach is used for generating the EI. The results show that the road traffic is the main emission source in the city. The motorcycles are responsible of the traffic emissions (94 % of CO, 68% of Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound (NMVOC), 61 % of SO2 and 99 % of CH4). Two scenarios for reducing traffic emissions are evaluated to reduce the HCMC emissions for the year 2015 and 2020. In addition, two other scenarios are the Business as Usual scenarios for the year 2015 and 2020 are also studied to evaluate the traffic emissions in HCMC. The third part of this work consists in applying air quality models to the region of HCMC, the aim here is to study abatement strategies for emission reduction in the city. The results of the simulation show that the plume of O3 is developed in the north-western part of the city. These results are in good agreement with the measurements. Among the four previous emission scenarios, we chose only two reduction emission scenarios to study the effective abatement strategies for the year 2015 and 2020 in using air quality model. These two affective abatement strategies are adopted to help the local government to take decision for managing air quality in HCMC. The 100 Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are run for estimating the uncertainty in the results of air quality simulations. The results of these two abatement strategies showed that if the local government follows the emission control plan: For 2015, the O3 concentration in 2015 will be similar to the present O3 concentration. For 2020, the O3 concentration in 2020 will decrease of around 10% to 30% of O3 in comparison to the actual level. However, the O3 concentration in 2020 is still higher than standard limit. The developed methodology for generating road traffic emissions offers several advantages. It is able to calculate a road traffic emission for both developing and developed countries. The calculation is divided in several steps with different level of complexity. Therefore, this methodology provides the new approach to manage air quality in cities.

EPFL2010

Alternative Methods for Assessing Air Quality and Energy Strategies for Developing Countries: A Case Study on Cuba

Jessie Madrazo Bacallao

The worldwide increasing energy consumption is mainly based on fossil fuel which leads to a large number of environmental problems. Indeed, the combustion of fossil fuels releases into the atmosphere different greenhouse gases and harmful pollutants which are responsible for climate change and cause air quality degradation. Moreover, fossil fuel resources are limited and their depletion will happen sooner or later. Governments of the whole world are urged to take relevant measures and policies for energy transition. To support their choices, different decision support approaches have been developed, mainly in industrialized countries. However, these approaches usually lack coherent integration and rely on expensive and often unavailable detailed data, especially in developing countries. This PhD aims at developing alternative methods for the assessment of air quality and energy strategies in the framework of developing countries. The developed methods are implemented in Cuba which seems an excellent test case to design and apply energy strategies for developing countries. The first part of this work deals with methods intended to reliable assess air quality. For this purpose, an air pollution measurement campaign was carried out in Havana. It provided data to implement and improve a pre-existing methodology capable of estimating Cuban vehicle emission factors. Statistical analysis indicated that traffic accounted for around 50% of particular matter concentration levels. Furthermore, vehicles pre-1980s were identified as the most polluting technologies at the street level. This work also demonstrates the usability of an emission inventory designed for air quality simulations. Benchmarking tools developed in the framework of the Forum for Air Quality Modelling in Europe helped to pinpoint differences between global and regional inventories, and identify where efforts should concentrate for improving emission data. This research also sets up simplified algebraic relationships (i.e. so-called Source-Receptor Relationship) capable of predicting the impacts on concentration levels resulting from regional emission abatement strategies, while being more time-efficient than traditional methods. The second part is dedicated to exploring scenarios for a reliable Cuban energy transition. To this end, the energy fluxes between resources, technologies and final demand were computed for the year 2015. A set of scenarios were then designed on the basis of different mixes of energy resources. These scenarios have been compared according to three criteria that seemed the most relevant for the country geopolitical and economic situation: energy security (degree of dependence from energy imports), sustainability of the energy resources and population exposure to harmful pollutants. Overall, the results indicated that energy security and sustainability increase with wind and solar penetration at different rates. A penetration rate of 20% of the demand significantly decreases fossil fuel requirements and imports. Once raised to 50%, Cuba can achieve complete energy independence. The scenario which fulfils 100% of the electricity demands from solar and wind resources shows the maximum of sustainability. Not surprisingly, the penetration of renewables had positive effects on air quality.

EPFL2018

Validation and application of an urban turbulence parameterisation scheme for mesoscale atmospheric models

Yves-Alain F. Roulet

Growing population, extensive use (and abuse) of the natural resources, increasing pollutants emissions in the atmosphere: these are a few obstacles (and not the least) one has to face with nowadays to ensure the sustainability of our planet in general, and of the air quality in particular. In the case of air pollution, the processes that govern the transport and the chemical transformation of pollutants are highly complex and non-linear. The use of numerical models for simulating meteorological fields, which in turn will determine the transport of pollutants in the atmosphere, is thus a very appropriate tool to describe and understand the air pollution problematic. This work focuses on the meteorological simulation, using a mesoscale model. The stress is particularly put on the parameterisation of urban induced effects on the meteorological fields above a city. A detailed urban parameterisation scheme has been implemented in a mesoscale model in a previous work. This new scheme takes into account the presence of a city in a more accurate way as the traditional method usually used in mesoscale models. In the first part of this work, the urban module was validated for a one-dimensional off-line simulation within and above a street canyon in the city of Basel/Switzerland. The simulation results were compared with measurements taken within and above the same street canyon during an intensive observation period in the frame of the BUBBLE project (Basel UrBan Boundary Layer Experiment). The comparison with the measurements and with a simulation using the traditional urban parameterisation showed that the detailed urban scheme improved the quality of the simulation of turbulent fluxes and meteorological parameters (wind, temperature) in the urban canopy. Further on, the mesoscale was applied for a three-dimensional simulation over the city of Basel and its surroundings. The results showed that the model is able to reproduce the wind pattern that prevailed during the simulated episode, and that the accuracy of the temperature simulation in the city is improved with the urban module. In the third part of this work, an air quality study was performed over the Mexico City basin. The mesoscale model simulated the meteorological conditions for the chosen episode (1 and 2 March 1997). The results were then passed to TAPOM, a Eulerian photochemical model that calculates the space and time distribution of air pollutants. The simulated concentrations over the basin showed good agreement with the observed values. The validated model could then be used to test some emissions reduction scenarios for Mexico City. The use of the detailed urban parameterisation scheme for meteorological fields and air pollutants concentration simulation improved the quality of the results in almost all the applied situations. Consequently, the full modelling tool presented and validated in this work can be used for air quality modelling studies over cities and their surroundings.

EPFL2004