Impacts of climate change on heating and cooling: a worldwide estimate from energy and macro-economic perspectives

The energy sector is not only a major driving force of climate change, it is also vulnerable to future climate change. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of changes in future temperature on the heating and cooling services both in terms of global and regional energy impacts and macro-economic eects. For this purpose, the technico-economic TIMES-WORLD and the general equilibrium GEMINI-E3 model are coupled with a climate model, PLASIM-ENTS, to assess the regional and seasonal temperature changes and their consequences on the energy and economic systems. One of the main insight of the analysis is the absence of climate feedback induced by the adaptation of the energy system to future heating and cooling needs, since the latter represent a limited share of total nal energy consumption and emissions, and the heating and cooling changes tend to compensate each other, at the global level. However, signicant changes may be observed at regional levels, more particularly in terms of additional power capacity required to satisfy the new cooling demands. In terms of macro-economic impacts, welfare gains comes from the decrease of energy for heating and to welfare loss due to an increase of electricity for space cooling. For energy exporting countries welfare gain is reduced (or lossed) due to losses of revenue coming from less energy export while for non-energy exporting countries welfare gains is linked to the decrease of energy needs for heating overcompensate the cost coming from the increase of electricity consumption.